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Analysis

Gold and Silver ETFs offer over 30% average return in one year. Did you miss the shine?

Gold and Silver ETFs offer over 30% average return in one year. Did you miss the shine?iStock

Gold and silver ETFs have surged over 30% in the past year as prices hit record highs, fueled by trade conflicts, economic uncertainties, and industrial demand.

Synopsis
Gold and silver ETFs delivered over 30% returns in the last year, driven by soaring commodity prices. Experts expect further gains amid trade tensions, declining US interest rates, and strong industrial demand, though short-term consolidation may occur.
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With Gold and Silver witnessing a significant price surge and reaching all-time high levels, the ETFs based on these commodities have offered an average return of more than 30% in the last one year.
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Gold ETFs have delivered an average return of 33.36% in the last one year with Invesco India Gold ETF being the topper. The scheme delivered 34.35% return in the last one year, followed by Quantum Gold Saving Fund which gave 33.97% return in the same period. Tata Gold ETF FoF gave the lowest return of around 32.1% in the same period.

Silver based ETFs gave an average return of around 33.01% in the last one year and Aditya Birla SL Silver ETF delivered the highest return of around 33.83% in the same period. ICICI Pru Silver ETF gave 33.76% in the same period. Axis Silver ETF gave the lowest return in the last one year.

Also Read | NFO Insight: Can SBI BSE PSU Bank Index Fund beat market volatility?

Two funds based on gold and silver - Edelweiss Gold and Silver ETF FoF and Motilal Oswal Gold and Silver ETFs FoF - gave 33.05% and 32.65% returns respectively in the last one year.
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“As the "trade war" intensifies, gold prices could stay strong and might come close to $3,000 per ounce soon. China, Canada, and Mexico have all responded to US tariffs, creating more strain on financial markets and economies. China imposed 10-15% taxes on various American agricultural products, while Canada announced 25% tariffs on US products. Mexico plans to discuss the country's tariff measures at a rally on Sunday. If trade conflicts escalate further, gold prices could keep rising in the short term,” according to a release by Axis Mutual Fund.

“Silver prices in India have been on the rise, with experts predicting they could reach 1.17 lakh per kilogram within the next year. This increase is driven by several factors, including declining US interest rates, geopolitical uncertainties, and strong industrial demand for silver,” the release further said.

After this sharp rally, domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal believes that the gold and silver prices could witness some consolidation, however, the bias for both continues to remain on the higher side.

“Investors could continue to keep a buy-on-dips stance for both metals,” said Motilal Oswal in a note.

Also Read | Looking for mutual funds to invest in? Here are top 10 performers of FY25

In the current calendar year so far, gold ETFs have offered upto 17% return. UTI Gold ETF gave the highest return of around 16.74% in the calendar year 2025 so far. Axis Gold Fund gave the lowest return of 15.44% in the same period.

Silver ETFs also offered upto 17% return in the current calendar year so far. UTI Silver ETF gave the highest return of 16.85% in the same period, followed by HDFC Silver ETF which gave 16.23% return in 2025 so far.

Commenting on investing in commodity based ETFs, Axis Mutual Fund believes that, “Adding gold to these portfolios can result in lower volatility, higher returns, and a better balance between risk and reward, helping to preserve or even increase asset value. Additionally, with global uncertainties rising, gold's role as a risk hedge makes it an effective tool for insurance funds to manage global risks.”
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“We believe that silver's positive outlook will continue, supported by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Indian investors anticipate a price rebound in silver due to its lagging performance compared to gold. Improving rural consumption has also boosted Indian silver demand; Rural silver consumption accounts for around two-thirds of the total Indian demand,” the fund house said.

A market expert is of the view that with global economic conditions remaining uncertain, gold is expected to retain its appeal as a hedge against market instability in the months ahead

“Anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by global central banks has reduced the urgency for safe-haven investments, dampening demand for gold ETFs. Despite the slowdown in inflows, gold remains a crucial portfolio diversifier. With global economic conditions remaining uncertain, gold is expected to retain its appeal as a hedge against market instability in the months ahead,” commented Nehal Meshram, Senior Analyst – Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Research India.
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