The US has never imported so much food

The US, known for being a global agriculture powerhouse, has never imported so much food.
Inbound shipments of everything from avocados to coffee and sugar are expected to drive the country’s agriculture trade deficit to a record $49 billion this year, the US Department of Agriculture said in its trade outlook report. At the same time, America’s most widely grown crops have been losing overseas markets over the past decades.

It’s a stark turnaround for a nation that once used its abundant food supplies as a tool of statecraft, with the US now facing a future of persistent agricultural trade deficits. The country imported more food than exported every year since 2023. Before then, the only other annual deficits were in 2019 and 2020, during President Donald Trump’s trade war with China, and several years prior to 1960.

Bloomberg

Trump has pledged 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada goods from March, along with an additional 10% tax on China’s goods. That could make things worse, raising the cost of importing food if countries retaliate and farming goods get caught in the cross hairs.

American imports of farm goods are forecast to climb 6.5% in the year ending Sept. 30 to $219.5 billion, with inbound shipments of avocados, orange juice and coffee accounting for much of the increase, the USDA said. Exports are forecast at $170.5 billion, 2.2% lower than a year earlier.

“Avocado imports from Mexico, the largest commodity in terms of import volume, are expected to increase on strong demand and improved growing conditions,” the USDA said.

Pricey cocoa and sugar are also adding to the import bill. And while some grain exports are expected to rise, traditional American crops have been loosing allure overseas for years, with Russia overtaking the US as the world’s top wheat shipper and Brazil surpassing the US as the biggest exporter of corn, cotton and soybeans.

The USDA’s outlook was based on policies in effect as of Feb. 11 — it doesn’t include the 70 million to 100 million eggs the nation will look to import to address record prices and the worst-ever outbreak of avian influenza.