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According to an average estimate of six brokerages, net profit for the fourth quarter is likely to fall 5% year-on-year (YoY), while revenue from operations is seen rising 4% over the previous year period.
RIL’s consolidated EBITDA is estimated to grow anywhere between 1-3%, mainly driven by a telecom tariff hike and improving retail business. Analysts expect weak numbers for the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business.
In the reporting period, Reliance is likely to see a sharp increase in its retail segment’s earnings. Retail EBITDA is expected to report healthy growth of 11% YoY and on higher area, better margins and realizations.
Meanwhile, the Jio business is also healthy with operating profit likely rising 16% YoY on higher ARPU post tariff hike and 1% YoY rise in subscribers.
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Here's what analysts expect from RIL Q4:
ICICI Securities
RJio may deliver a 16.2/2.2% YoY/QoQ rise in EBITDA. OTC segment to remain flattish QoQ and may decline by 13.9% YoY with an estimated $0.5 per bbl QoQ dip in GRMs, partly offset by steady petchem spreads.Upstream is likely to show softness YoY, as slightly lower production and higher government share of profit petroleum dents margins. Also, retail segment would be marginally down QoQ, in line with seasonal trends. Overall, consolidated EBITDA to rise by 4%; however, PAT could decline by 5% YoY, driven by higher depreciation/interest costs for the FY25 end.
YES Securities
Refining throughput to increase by 3.5% YoY but decrease 1.1% QoQ to 17.7 mmt while GRM expected at $10.4/bbl, Telecom ARPU to increase to Rs 208 whereas the subscribers stand at 487 million. Retail revenue to grow 7.4% YoY, but decline 8.9% sequentially to Rs 823.5 billion and EBITDA Margin at 7.5%.Nuvama
We anticipate a 2% YoY increase in RIL consolidated EBITDA (-2% QoQ) as weakness in O2C, O&G EBITDA is offset by strength in digital, retail businesses . We expect O2C EBITDA to fall 14% YoY (flat QoQ) on weak product cracks and petchem spreads. Benchmark Singapore GRMs have fallen 58% YoY on weak global product cracks.We expect RIL O&G's EBITDA to fall 9% YoY (-8% QoQ) on decrease in production from KG-D6 block despite 2% YoY increase in deep water gas prices (flat QoQ).
Kotak Equities
We expect EBITDA for digital services to further increase 3% QoQ, driven by further flow-through of a July 2024 tariff increase, retail to be up 10% YoY, O2C to decline 11% YoY and E&P to decline 5% QoQ on lower volumes.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
( Originally published on Apr 24, 2025 )
