US TREASURY
Rupee steady at 85.33/$ amid oil demand, trade optimism
The rupee opened at 84.70/$1 versus 85.37 per dollar close on the previous day (Friday). The initial optimism seen in the rupee on Tuesday came on the back of US-China trade agreement and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan.
Trade thaw offers 90-day reprieve as US, China seek off-ramp from economic decoupling
The United States and China have reached an agreement to reduce tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days. This move aims to ease economic tensions. Markets are responding positively to this development. Targeted tariffs in sectors like pharmaceuticals and automobiles are still possible. This provides an opportunity to build resilient global supply chains.
Forget politicians, top economist claims bond vigilantes are the real global power players, and they've successfully 'boxed in' Donald Trump
President Trump's recent imposition of high global tariffs, dubbed "Liberation Day," triggered significant market selloffs and a surge in Treasury yields as bondholders reacted negatively. The intense market pressure, driven by concerns over long-term damage to US assets, ultimately led Trump to suspend the tariffs for 90 days, highlighting the power of traders and bond vigilantes to influence policy decisions.
US dollar falls, stock futures up, inflation whets risk appetite
The dollar fell and U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday after data showed U.S. consumer inflation picked up less than expected in April, when President Donald Trump unveiled a raft of tariffs that have wreaked havoc on global supply chains and markets.
It's not just Japan and China, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway also owns a major chunk of U.S. Treasuries; here's how much and what it plans to do with them
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has become a major player in the US Treasury bill market. The company holds about 5% of all outstanding short-term government bills. Their T-bill holdings reached $314 billion in March. This makes Berkshire Hathaway the fourth-largest holder globally. Buffett regularly invests in T-bills, earning billions in interest.
Pakistan calls US-designated terrorist Hafiz Abdur Rauf, who led funeral of terrorists killed by India, 'a common family man'
Pakistan's military is under scrutiny after a US-designated terrorist, Hafiz Abdur Rauf, led a funeral for militants killed in Indian airstrikes. Despite military claims that Rauf is merely a religious figure, his identity details match those on the US Treasury's sanctions list, revealing his senior role in Lashkar-e-Taiba and its charity front, both designated terrorist organizations.
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Foreign banks dump $3 billion worth g-secs amid India-Pak tensions
Traders believe the 10-year benchmark is likely to settle near 6.32-6.34%, following the recent border de-escalation and ceasefire announcement.
Investors cheer US-China tariff truce, but cautious over a final deal
The U.S. and China have agreed to a temporary tariff reduction, boosting global stocks and the dollar. This 90-day pause offers relief but caution remains as a permanent trade deal is still needed. Investors are now shifting focus to potential U.S. tax cuts and their impact on debt levels amid lingering economic uncertainty.
Metal stocks surge over 8% as US-China tariff truce lifts market sentiment
Domestic metal stocks rallied over 8% after the US and China agreed to ease tariffs for 90 days, boosting global metal prices and market sentiment.
Asian stocks, US futures gain on China trade talks
Shares in Australia, Japan and South Korea advanced at the open, with the Topix index gaining for a 12th day for its longest winning streak since October 2017. Futures contract for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both climbed more than 1.2%, while oil rose and gold fell 1.5%. The greenback climbed against major peers while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose 3 basis points.
Will NaBFID successfully navigate offshore bond market?
The last time an Indian public sector entity tapped the dollar bond market was in September 2024, when power sector financier REC raised $500 million at 4.75%. This was purely a non-deal roadshow, one person said. "NaBFID is testing waters and may not immediately raise funds
US-China trade deal talks: Donald Trump or Beijing - who is the winner between world's top two economies?
US-China trade talks in Geneva are being followed globally as the world's top economies are trying to find a middle path.
Trump gets compared to Lincoln by Fox News
Donald Trump likened his initial days as president to those of Abraham Lincoln. This comparison follows praise from a Fox News host. Trump shared this on Truth Social. His approval ratings are historically low. Trade talks between the US and China are ongoing in Switzerland. Trump seeks a "total reset" of trade relations.
US-China tariff talks to continue Sunday, as Trump touts 'great progress made'
President Trump hailed “great progress” in US-China tariff talks in Switzerland, suggesting a possible “total reset.” While no major breakthrough occurred, negotiations will continue. Trump aims to ease trade tensions affecting global markets. Talks with Swiss leaders also addressed US tariffs on Swiss goods, prompting cautious Swiss responses amid economic concerns.
Trump hails 'total reset' in US-China trade relations as talks continue
US and China engaged in trade talks in Geneva, signaling a potential "total reset" amid escalating tariff tensions. Discussions aimed to de-escalate the trade war, with both sides acknowledging the current high tariffs are detrimental. While Trump hinted at tariff reductions, the US clarified that concessions from China are necessary for any changes.
Global central bank gold reserves rise to 32,000 tonnes in 2024
central bank gold reserves: Central banks globally now hold 32,000 tonnes of gold, up from 26,000 tonnes in 2009, with India among the top 10 holders driving sustained accumulation for diversification and stability.
Thank Trump for not getting your dolls: US Treasury Secretary tells girls amid ongoing trade war with China
US President Donald Trump recently faced backlash for repeatedly saying in recent days that children can get by with fewer dolls this year if his sweeping tariff policies drive up living costs for families. Trump's US Treasury Secretary Scott has now come out in his defense amid rising tensions with China.
Moody's cuts India growth forecast for 2025 to 6.3%
Moody's has reduced India's economic growth prediction for 2025 to 6.3 percent. This revision is due to policy changes and trade uncertainties. Geopolitical risks, including India-Pakistan tensions, also contribute. The IMF and World Bank have also lowered their growth forecasts for India. China's and US's economic growth are also expected to slow down.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says US could announce trade deals with some countries this week
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the Trump administration may reveal trade agreements with key partners this week, though specifics were not disclosed. Negotiations are ongoing with 17 major trading partners, excluding China. Bessent noted that many partners have presented favorable offers, and officials are currently re-negotiating these agreements.
Indian bonds could offer better returns than stocks in near term: Bhanu Baweja, UBS Bank
I'm not sure the worst is over for the markets yet, as the base case for tariffs remains a difficult question. It's also possible that reciprocal tariffs could be reinstated on July 2. We assume 10% universal tariffs, with China's tariffs reduced from 145% to 60%, but even this isn't fully priced in.
Can bond yields spoil the market party going ahead? Ben Powell answers
BlackRock's Ben Powell suggests rising US 10-year Treasury yields, driven by persistent US inflation and trade tensions, could dampen economic optimism. This limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates, while investors demand higher compensation for long-term investment risk. Despite potential demand contraction, companies are investing in AI to boost productivity amid global uncertainty.
RBI forex income expected to rise, lift payout to government
The Reserve Bank of India's FY25 dividend payout to the government is projected to increase, fueled by higher income from foreign exchange reserve deployments due to elevated US treasury yields. This boost is further supported by strong commissions from forex operations and interest income on government securities.
Japan warns of ‘nuclear option’ in trade talks, threatens to use its massive $1.1 trillion U.S. debt holdings as a weapon in tense standoff with Donald Trump
Japan is considering using its massive $1.1 trillion US Treasury holdings as leverage in negotiations with America. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato hinted at this "nuclear option" to deter extreme demands. Selling off even a fraction of these bonds could significantly raise US borrowing costs, impacting everything from home loans to securities.
Japan's finance minister calls US Treasury holdings 'a card' in tariff talks with Trump
Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato suggested that the country's substantial U.S. Treasury holdings could be a negotiating tool in tariff discussions with the Trump administration. While not explicitly threatening sales, Kato implied that maintaining these holdings could influence Washington towards a favorable trade agreement for Japan. This comes as the U.S.
Japan says its $1 trillion in US Treasuries is among tools for trade talks
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato suggested Japan might use its massive U.S. Treasury holdings as leverage in trade negotiations with the United States, a shift from his previous stance. This comes as trade talks continue amidst market volatility and U.S. tariffs, with concerns about currency manipulation and the potential impact of Treasury yield moves on Japan's economy. The U.S.
Scott Bessent wants Fed to yield on rates
Two-year Treasury yields were at 3.57% in early traders, compared with a benchmark federal funds rate of 4.33%. The Fed targets the key rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
FPIs boost Indian equities amid tariff optimism in April
After selling equities worth ?33,927 crore ($3,953 million) in the first half of April, FPIs ended the month with net purchases worth ?4,223 crore ($510 million), according to the data from NSDL.
Overseas investors pull Rs 13,359 crore from Indian bonds amid US yield surge and geopolitical tensions
Reversing four months of inflows, April saw a net ?13,359 crore of outflow from the index-eligible fully accessible route (FAR) government securities, the highest monthly exit since India's inclusion in the JP Morgan EM index in July 2024, CCIL data showed. Passive investments often closely track the weightings on global gauges.
Indian trade deal talks moving well, much easier to negotiate with India: US Treasury Secretary Bessent
The United States and India are nearing a trade agreement. Negotiations are progressing well due to India's high tariffs. US officials see potential deals with South Korea and Japan too. Earlier, reciprocal tariffs were suspended for many countries except China and Hong Kong. US Vice President JD Vance met Prime Minister Narendra Modi to advance trade talks.
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