US RECESSION
JPMorgan drops US recession call, ups China outlook
"The administration's recent dialing down of some of the more draconian tariffs placed on China should reduce the risk that the US economy slips into recession this year," JPMorgan Chief US Economist Michael Feroli said on Tuesday. "We believe recession risks are still elevated, but now below 50%."
China pauses 24% tariff rate on US goods for 90 days
China has announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for United States goods. This occurred during trade discussions between major global powers. The US also stated an agreement for a 90-day pause. Washington will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports. China will also lower duties on US imports. Former President Trump initiated a trade conflict, especially targeting China.
Gold rises 1.3% as global tensions push investors towards safer haven
Gold prices surged 1.36% to an all-time high of ?94,344 per 10 gm amid rising global tensions, US recession fears, and a weakening dollar, enhancing its safe-haven appeal.
Chances of US recession recede as trade deals and potential ceasefires emerge: Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni observes a shift in market sentiment with easing concerns across geopolitics and trade. Potential ceasefires are on the horizon, and US recession odds are decreasing. Trade negotiations are progressing, and the focus shifts to earnings and economic resilience. Yardeni raised his S&P 500 outlook and lowered recession odds, anticipating a potential 'roaring 2020s' scenario.
Goldman Sachs cuts US recession odds to 35% from 45% on trade truce optimism
Goldman Sachs revised its U.S. recession forecast downward to 35%. This follows a tariff truce between the U.S. and China. The brokerage also increased its 2025 U.S. GDP growth forecast. It now anticipates three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 and 2026. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 6,100 points.
Sensex tumbles over 1,000 points, Nifty below 24,700; IT, bank stocks top drags
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a decline on Tuesday morning, reversing gains from the previous day's surge. This downturn followed a fragile ceasefire agreement with Pakistan. While some stocks like Sun Pharma saw gains, Infosys and Kotak Mahindra Bank led the losses among Sensex constituents.
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Japan's Nikkei jumps to 3-month peak on Sino-US tariff truce
Nikkei in Japan saw a surge, hitting a three-month high. This happened because the United States and China decided to reduce tariffs temporarily. The move eased worries about a possible global recession. Shipping, pharma, and banking sectors performed well. Automakers also gained due to a weaker yen. Toyota and Nissan shares increased. Nissan is expected to announce job cuts.
Dollar clings on to gains from US-China trade pact
The dollar strengthened as the U.S. and China agreed to ease trade tensions, reducing fears of a global recession. This deal led to a relief rally in global stocks and a surge in the dollar, impacting currencies like the yen and euro. Consequently, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have diminished, with U.S. Treasury yields rising in response.
‘Buy America’ sweeps across global markets after trade talks
Wall Street surged Monday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rebounding strongly, as a US-China tariff truce soothed recession fears and reignited optimism in tech stocks and broader market sentiment.
Is a US recession imminent and what would be the impact on India? How should we manage a robust portfolio in this scenario?
US tariff policies have stirred economic uncertainty, potentially triggering a short-term recession due to delayed capital expenditure and cautious investment. While the IMF forecasts reduced global growth, India faces impacts on exports, manufacturing, and commodity prices. Amidst this volatility, bonds emerge as a promising asset class for investors seeking stable returns, offering an opportunity to navigate the uncertain market landscape.
Gold falls as 'positive' US-China talks erode safe-haven appeal
Gold prices experienced a decline on Monday as positive signals emerged from U.S.-China trade discussions, diminishing investor apprehension and consequently reducing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. The U.S. and China indicated progress in trade negotiations, potentially leading to a reduction in the U.S. trade deficit and the establishment of a new economic dialogue forum.
Conflict impact on markets limited but India lacks stronger drivers: Christy Tan, Franklin Templeton
For the Indian equity markets to go from strength to strength, there have to be stronger drivers. And that could be something that is missing. And if you accompany that with rich valuations, then that could set the stage for the upside prospects to be quite limited. So, there's a need to be really selective, increasingly so now than previously. That is the formula to get more returns out of Indian assets.
Trump's trade war about to leave Americans with empty bathroom shelves? Check details
Are Americans about to face shortage of toilet papers in the United States? Suzano SA, Brazil's leading pulp exporter, reports a 20% drop in bleached hardwood pulp exports to the US due to Trump's tariffs, impacting toilet paper production. Increased costs are passed to US buyers, raising concerns of potential shortages reminiscent of the 2020 pandemic panic.
US Stock Market predictions: S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq eye US-China trade talks
Stock Market in the USA will have another busy week as all eyes are on the Washington's trade talks with China, first since Donald Trump's tariff announcement.
Empty store shelves, mass layoffs, and a surge in 'For Lease' signs spark fears that a full-blown recession is just weeks away
Empty shelves and job layoffs are warning signs that the U.S. economy could slide into a recession by summer 2025. With container ships from China running below normal capacity, retailers like Walmart and Target are seeing shortages. Over 275,000 U.S. jobs were cut in March, including massive layoffs in the federal government. As trade tensions with China continue, small businesses are closing, and spending is falling.
With experts predicting a Recession, Warren Buffett's timeless investment wisdom emerges as the smartest move you can make; here are his priceless words
Warren Buffett recession advice is more important than ever as experts warn a 2025 recession is likely. With the stock market swinging wildly and major banks like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan raising red flags, Buffett’s time-tested wisdom offers clarity. He urges investors to stay calm, think long-term, and buy great businesses when fear is high. This simple, human guide breaks down what Buffett really means and how to apply it now. If you're unsure whether to sell, hold, or invest—this story has the answers. Don’t miss this smart, easy-to-follow advice that could shape your financial future.
Tariff Tantrum: Donald Trump's trade moves could push USA into recession, cautions investment giant
US President Donald Trump’s new tariff plans could cause a recession and high prices with slow growth, according to asset management giant Pimco.
US Stock Market Today: Market surges as trade deal hopes lift Wall Street; Dow +253 pts, S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.9%, 10-yr yield 4.29%, gold slips — can trade talks calm recession-wary investors?
US Stock Market Today: Wall Street rises as fresh hope for trade deals brings a wave of optimism to U.S. markets. President Donald Trump’s trade agreement with the UK sparks investor confidence, lifting the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. With talks of more deals ahead and earnings reports from companies like Tapestry and Krispy Kreme, markets are watching closely. But recession fears still linger as tariffs, inflation, and global tensions stir uncertainty. This story breaks down what’s moving the market, what’s next for trade, and how businesses are reacting in this fast-changing economic landscape.
What sectors to be overweight on, underweight on, and completely avoid right now? Manish Gunwani answers
Manish Gunwani suggests a cautious approach, highlighting India's strong macroeconomics and the 'China plus one' theme as opportunities, particularly in manufacturing exports. He favors beaten-down financials due to attractive valuations and India's robust macro, while cautioning against overvalued auto and capital goods sectors. A potential US recession remains a key risk factor.
Netflix to revamp TV app interface, launch AI-powered search for iOS users
Netflix will revamp its TV app and roll out AI-powered search on iOS, letting users find content using natural language. Amid economic concerns, it aims to boost engagement with personalized recommendations, a redesigned homepage, and a vertical video feed showcasing show and movie clips.
Are Tesla, Nissan and Mercedes-Benz's exploiting Trump tariff fears to manipulate customers? Check details
Several companies are alerting customers about possible price hikes due to tariffs. Tesla and Nissan are among those urging consumers to buy now. French brand Sezane also cautioned its U.S. customers. Retailers are using this strategy to boost sales amid low consumer confidence. Some companies pass tariff costs directly. Donald Trump criticized Amazon for planning to display tariff-related price increases.
Bessent says US data not showing recession, expects Q1 data to be revised upwards
US Treasury official Scott Bessent stated that the American economy is not in recession. This is despite a contraction in the first quarter GDP. Bessent told the House Appropriations Committee that economic numbers are subject to revision. He expects an upward revision of the Q1 data. The Commerce Department reported a GDP decrease last quarter.
Top reasons why Donald Trump is desperate for a trade deal as the 90-day deadline he set expires on July 8
President Trump faces mounting pressure as his 90-day deadline for trade deals approaches. With the US economy already feeling the impact of the trade war, the potential for renewed tariffs looms large. Stalled negotiations with China and limited time for discussions further complicate the situation, raising concerns about economic disruption and consumer impact.
Ray Dalio, who warned of 2008 market crash, fears ‘something worse’ than recession amid Trump tariffs
Ray Dalio, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, warns the U.S. faces economic peril worse than a recession. He attributes this to rising debt, political instability, and Trump's tariffs, which disrupt the global order. Dalio urges fiscal discipline to avert a potential collapse of the dollar and increased global tensions, drawing parallels to the instability of the 1930s.
Indian bonds could offer better returns than stocks in near term: Bhanu Baweja, UBS Bank
I'm not sure the worst is over for the markets yet, as the base case for tariffs remains a difficult question. It's also possible that reciprocal tariffs could be reinstated on July 2. We assume 10% universal tariffs, with China's tariffs reduced from 145% to 60%, but even this isn't fully priced in.
Don’t let a recession derail you: Here are essential tips to safeguard your finances, from savings to stocks to your home loan
Recession in 2025 is already becoming a top concern as the U.S. economy shrinks for the first time in three years. With GDP down 0.3% and inflation staying high, fears of a full-blown recession are growing. This article breaks down what a recession really means and offers simple, practical tips to help you recession-proof your savings, credit cards, investments, home, insurance, and income. Learn how to protect your money, keep your job options open, and stay ahead of financial uncertainty. It's a must-read for anyone looking to survive and thrive in today’s unpredictable economy.
S&P cuts US growth forecast sharply but rules out chances of a recession
S&P Global Ratings has revised its US GDP predictions. The forecast for 2025 is down to 1.5 percent. The projection for 2026 is now 1.7 percent. This adjustment follows uncertainties from US trade policies. S&P also lowered growth forecasts for India, Canada, and other nations. These changes reflect concerns about a potential global economic slowdown.
'BE PATIENT': Trump says shrink in US economy has 'nothing to do with tariffs'
The US economy shrank 0.3% in first three months of the year as firms stockpiled imports ahead of Trump tariffs. It is the worst quarterly performance for the U.S. economy since early 2022. US President Donald Trump has said that it has 'nothing to do with tariffs' as he blamed Joe Biden for it.
Recession risk deepens, fear haunts economies and businesses as Trump's tariff damage spreads
A recent Reuters poll reveals economists are increasingly worried about a potential global recession this year, largely blaming U.S. tariffs for damaging business confidence. Overwhelmingly, economists view these tariffs negatively, leading to lowered global growth forecasts. Concerns extend to stagflation, with central banks struggling to meet inflation targets.
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