US ECONOMY
Federal Reserve to announce decision on interest rates: Will Jerome Powell speak on recession?
The US Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on interest rates on March 19. All eyes will be on central bank chief Jerome Powell and whether he will make any comments on a potential recession. The Federal Reserve's decision comes amid a slew of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, which might impact spending later.
Is US recession on cards and how to know it has come? Details
US recession: Concerns over the US economy heading towards a recession are rising. A recent SBI Research report shows that the long term US GDP growth shows a declining trend. Economists have sounded alarm over tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump that has rattled the stock market. The economic uncertainty looms large.
U.S economic outlook worsens: Recession fears spike as probability jumps to 36%, GDP forecast slashed, and tariffs overtake inflation as top threat
Economists and analysts have increased the likelihood of a US recession to 36% due to trade policies and tariffs. The 2025 US GDP growth forecast has been reduced. Most experts believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice. Over 70% agree that tariffs are harmful to inflation, jobs, and economic growth.
Disturbing sign of economic trouble: Recession fears surge as Americans default on car loans at record rates, echoing 2008 financial crisis warnings
Americans are missing car payments at a record rate, with 6.6% of subprime borrowers behind on loans, comparable to the 2008 financial crisis. Rising living costs and potential tariffs on new cars are exacerbating the situation. Car prices, borrowing rates, insurance premiums, and maintenance costs have all surged, making it difficult for borrowers to keep up.
Trump could delay reciprocal tariffs for countries that agree to halt practices the US deems 'unfair'
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced that Washington may delay reciprocal tariffs for countries halting practices deemed unfair, with specific levies to be revealed on April 2. Bessent expressed optimism that some duties might be avoided through pre-negotiated deals or prompt talks.
Rupee leaps to over three-week high on inflows, softer dollar
At least three large foreign banks sold dollars, helping lift the rupee, a trader at a mid-sized private bank said. Bids by state-run banks, however, kept a lid on further gains, traders said.
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Santosh Rao expects one Fed rate cut this year; says ultimately FIIs will return to India
Foreign funds are expected to return to India as it remains the fastest-growing economy despite current better risk-reward opportunities elsewhere. The US consumer shows caution amidst inflation concerns and potential tariff impacts. The Fed might implement one rate cut this year, with more expected next year as the economy slows.
From powerhouse to uncertainty: Once seen as unstoppable, the U.S. economy loses its edge as tariffs, job cuts, and investor fears shake confidence
The American economy is showing signs of vulnerability with declining investor confidence due to uncertain trade policies and government instability under Donald Trump's administration. The initial optimism has faded, and new tariffs are causing confusion and postponement of investments. Economists have revised growth estimates, highlighting US GDP growth estimates have been reduced from 2.2% to 2%.
US shoppers increased spending tepidly last month as anxiety over the economy rises
US retail sales saw a slight increase of 0.2% in February following a sharp drop in January, reflecting cautious consumer spending amid economic uncertainties. Shoppers spent more at grocery and home stores but cut back at auto dealers and restaurants.
China's economy in trouble due to Donald Trump's trade war? Data shows 'weak' state of world's second-largest economy
Chinese authority has released data pertaining to the country's economy for the months of January and February. Here are key findings.
The US economic outlook is becoming more uncertain
Wall Street analysts predict a turbulent short-term for the US economy, with lower growth and higher inflation. Consumer confidence and income expectations are declining, prompting forecasts to be revised below 2%. While opinions on long-term prospects diverge, uncertainty about policy, tariffs, and the stock market weighs heavily on predictions.
India’s exports to US may fall 3-3.5% post reciprocal tariffs, diverse exports to offset impact: SBI Research
India's exports to the US may drop by 3-3.5% due to new reciprocal tariffs. However, this impact can be offset by setting higher export targets in manufacturing and services. Additionally, India is pursuing FTAs with the UK, Canada, and the EU to boost trade and leverage digital economy growth, potentially adding $1 trillion to GDP by 2025.
Rating firms aren't forensic accountants: Amish Mehta, CEO, Crisil
Just because something has happened in a company, if they don't have debt, material debt, that might have no impact for a rating agency at all. Stock price might react for many reasons. That does not mean that every agency involved needs to put out something, says Amish Mehta, CEO, Crisil.
Charting the global economy: Tariffs fuel US inflation concerns
US consumers are increasingly anxious about the impact of rising tariffs, with both sentiment and long-term inflation expectations deteriorating. The UK economy contracted unexpectedly at the year's start, and China’s economy continues to struggle with deflation. Other global economies, including India and Japan, also face economic challenges.
UK economy contracts unexpectedly in January by 0.1%
Britain's economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in January compared to December, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics. This decline contrasts with forecasts from a Reuters poll of economists, who had predicted a 0.1% expansion for the month.
From inflation to trade battles; here are 5 key risks that could derail the U.S. economy under Donald Trump
Investors worry about five main risks to the US economy under President Trump: rising inflation, falling consumer confidence, uncertain tariffs and trade wars, declining stock markets, and the Federal Reserve's handling of interest rates. These factors contribute to economic instability, affecting consumer spending and market performance, as analyzed by The Hill and other experts.
Trump's dangerous game: A modern tyrant's struggles
Donald Trump exhibits traits of historical tyrants, using threats and lies in his political strategy. His unfeasible promises like lower taxes and reducing immigration disrupt the US's traditional power levers, leading to economic and social issues. His unpredictable actions aim for wins, but with minimal success, his fear of failure grows.
Ray Dalio issues dire warning, says America’s debt woes are spiralling, predicts shocking developments on the horizon
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, predicts a looming US debt crisis with a dangerous supply-demand imbalance. He warns that the national debt, currently at $36.2 trillion, and a deficit projected at 7.2% of GDP, could force drastic measures such as debt restructuring and foreign pressure to purchase US debt, potentially leading to international economic disputes.
Trump wants to re-structure US economy. Can his tariffs help create more jobs?
Donald Trump aims to boost domestic manufacturing through tariffs, addressing concerns about the economic challenges faced by American men. However, experts argue that tariffs will not revive manufacturing jobs. Instead, deregulation and educational reforms are suggested to better equip men for the evolving job market. Technology and global trade are key factors in the current economic landscape.
Trump playing Holi in the dark with trade
Donald Trump's tariff strategy aims to improve the US trade balance and boost domestic manufacturing. He uses tariffs selectively and negotiates based on economic pushback. By starting from an extreme position and recalibrating, Trump intends to bring surplus economies to negotiate. The approach is fluid, adapting to business and consumer reactions to inflation to avoid stalling the US economy.
US consumer inflation cools slightly to 2.8% in February
U.S. consumer prices saw a smaller increase than expected in February, with the CPI rising 0.2%. However, aggressive tariffs on imports are expected to raise costs in the coming months, likely affecting inflation. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged next week, despite the ongoing trade war and inflation pressures.
Is US recession imminent? Why is rising anxiety about it roiling markets?
Stock markets are falling sharply, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq in a correction. Economists worry about a recession due to President Trump's aggressive tariffs, particularly affecting key trading partners. Despite current stability and low recession odds, rising import taxes and uncertainty are causing concerns. Federal Reserve and experts monitor job losses, indicating a potential downturn.
Most Asian stocks drop as Trump trade policy sows uncertainty
Asian equities mostly fell Wednesday as investors fret over Donald Trump's ever-changing trade policies amid increasing concern that his tariffs could send the US economy into recession. But Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Wellington and Manila were in the red, with Sydney down more than one percent, on concerns about the impact of Trump's latest tariffs on Australia's economy.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's 9-word statement on recession sends clear message on economy; here's what he said
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reassures that the US economy remains strong despite recession concerns and market volatility. Powell highlights consistent GDP growth and robust job creation, stating employment and wages are rising. He emphasizes that inflation rates are stable, aligning with the Fed's long-term goal of 2%, providing confidence in continued economic health.
US trade woes escalate: China, Canada, Mexico and Europe disputes could wreak havoc on U.S economy if not resolved within days
US president Donald Trump's trade policies and tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have created uncertainty among investors. This has led to significant stock market sell-offs and declining valuation in S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as per reports. Experts warn of possible economic slowdown if issues are not resolved soon. Initial investor optimism is fading, raising concerns about potential market corrections.
Is US recession on cards? Donald Trump makes chilling prediction as tariff battle heats up
Is US headed for a recession? President Donald Trump has made a 'chilling prediction' about US recession as tariff battle has heated up. Donald Trump didn't take the opportunity to rule out the possibility that the United States economy could face a recession later this year as tensions over his controversial tariffs continue to rise.
Standing by tariffs, Donald Trump brushes off market swings
President Donald Trump has dismissed business concerns over planned tariffs on several trading partners and possible economic repercussions. Despite acknowledging potential short-term impacts on US growth, Trump maintained that his approach would ultimately benefit America. He indicated that tariffs may increase over time to ensure fair trade practices and emphasized bringing wealth back to the US.
Recession in US this year itself? Trump declines to rule out the possibility
Donald Trump has acknowledged the potential for a US recession in 2025, citing a period of transition as his administration implements significant changes. Despite mixed economic data and market volatility linked to his fluctuating tariffs, his economic team remains divided on recession risks. Analysts have raised the odds of an imminent downturn within the next year.
Trump's team is pivoting to no pain, no gain as economic message for US
President Trump, in his second term, is pushing forward with significant tariff hikes and protectionist measures, sparking trade wars and market fluctuations. Despite economic concerns and potential hardships, the administration believes short-term pain will yield long-term gains, particularly in manufacturing jobs. Fed remains cautious amid elevated uncertainty.
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