RECESSION PROBABILITY
Tariff Tantrum: Donald Trump's trade moves could push USA into recession, cautions investment giant
US President Donald Trump’s new tariff plans could cause a recession and high prices with slow growth, according to asset management giant Pimco.
What sectors to be overweight on, underweight on, and completely avoid right now? Manish Gunwani answers
Manish Gunwani suggests a cautious approach, highlighting India's strong macroeconomics and the 'China plus one' theme as opportunities, particularly in manufacturing exports. He favors beaten-down financials due to attractive valuations and India's robust macro, while cautioning against overvalued auto and capital goods sectors. A potential US recession remains a key risk factor.
FPI selling has abated but sustained buying won’t start till good earnings recovery starts: Jitendra Gohil
Kotak Alternate Asset Managers' Jitendra Gohil notes improved macro stability in India is aiding FPI sentiment, though sustained buying hinges on earnings recovery. While US tariff policy shifts impact market sentiment, large-cap IT stocks and correcting NBFCs/private banks present attractive opportunities. Gohil favors private banks and financial intermediaries over insurance due to competition concerns.
Are Tesla, Nissan and Mercedes-Benz's exploiting Trump tariff fears to manipulate customers? Check details
Several companies are alerting customers about possible price hikes due to tariffs. Tesla and Nissan are among those urging consumers to buy now. French brand Sezane also cautioned its U.S. customers. Retailers are using this strategy to boost sales amid low consumer confidence. Some companies pass tariff costs directly. Donald Trump criticized Amazon for planning to display tariff-related price increases.
Don't chase defence stocks on sentiment; focus on fundamentals and export potential: Ashish Gupta
There are the few companies that will probably benefit from higher defence spending in India and globally and there we see larger upside, but I would not kind of say that it is a broad rush approach that you should take towards the sector.
Top reasons why Donald Trump is desperate for a trade deal as the 90-day deadline he set expires on July 8
President Trump faces mounting pressure as his 90-day deadline for trade deals approaches. With the US economy already feeling the impact of the trade war, the potential for renewed tariffs looms large. Stalled negotiations with China and limited time for discussions further complicate the situation, raising concerns about economic disruption and consumer impact.
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Indian bonds could offer better returns than stocks in near term: Bhanu Baweja, UBS Bank
I'm not sure the worst is over for the markets yet, as the base case for tariffs remains a difficult question. It's also possible that reciprocal tariffs could be reinstated on July 2. We assume 10% universal tariffs, with China's tariffs reduced from 145% to 60%, but even this isn't fully priced in.
US service sector picks up in April; price pressures rise
The United States services sector saw growth in April. Orders increased, pushing up prices for materials. This signals rising inflation due to tariffs. The Institute for Supply Management reported an increase in its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index. The survey suggests the economy is not near recession. Businesses tried to avoid higher prices from tariffs.
Travel demand decline: How US economy faces billions in losses due to Trump trade policies
Weakening travel demand, fueled by trade war uncertainties and anti-American sentiment, threatens to erase billions from the U.S. economy. Airlines are retracting forecasts, and analysts project a significant hit to GDP from reduced foreign travel spending. Domestic spending is also declining amid recession worries, further impacting the U.S. travel and tourism industry.
Gold price today: Why is gold falling for the third straight day despite weak US data and Fed rate cut hopes?
Gold price today dropped for the third day straight, slipping to a two-week low near $3,232 as hopes for a US-China trade deal boosted market confidence. Despite weak US economic data and signs the Fed may cut rates soon, gold struggled to attract buyers. A stronger US Dollar and President Trump’s trade optimism pushed investors away from the safe-haven metal. With key data like Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM PMI around the corner, traders are closely watching the next move.
Oil prices take breather after selloff on supply worries
Oil prices experienced a slight rebound on Thursday after significant losses, influenced by indications that Saudi Arabia might increase production and a contraction in the U.S. economy during the first quarter. Concerns about trade disputes and OPEC+'s supply decisions continue to weigh on the market, leading to downward revisions in future price forecasts. U.S.
As U.S economy shrinks in Q1, the buzz word around town is recession; here's what experts are saying
The US economy faced a contraction in the first quarter of 2025. This raised concerns about a possible recession. The GDP declined by 0.3%, surprising economists. Stock market indices reacted negatively to the news. Experts are divided on the severity of the economic downturn. Tariff policies are adding to the uncertainty in the market.
Trump's tariffs loom over American economy as shipments from China fall
American businesses are reeling from President Trump's unpredictable tariffs, leading to order cancellations and postponed expansions. The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, with imports significantly impacting growth. As trade tensions escalate between the U.S. and China, experts warn of potential shortages, layoffs, and a heightened risk of recession, fueled by declining consumer confidence and business uncertainty.
Trump says 'China probably will eat those tariffs'; defends his trade war moves
President Trump defended his aggressive trade policies toward China, asserting Beijing would likely absorb the tariffs despite concerns about rising prices for American consumers. He dismissed economic anxieties, claiming the tariffs are a necessary reset of global economic relationships and a correction to past exploitation.
Trump touts economy at Michigan 100-day rally, as Americans grow wary
During a Michigan rally, President Trump promoted economic achievements and criticized Democrats, amidst polls showing declining approval due to economic concerns. He defended tariffs as job-saving measures and promised tax cuts, while Democrats attacked his presidency as chaotic and unconstitutional. Despite economic worries, some supporters backed Trump's policies, willing to endure short-term pain for long-term change.
Oil prices fall as trade war concerns dampen demand outlook
Brent crude futures fell by 17 cents, or 0.26%, to $64.08 per barrel by 0015 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $60.3 a barrel. Both benchmarks posted their lowest settlement prices since April 10 in the previous session.
Post-victory agenda; Carney's Liberals face swift deadlines and familiar faces
Following their election win, Carney's Liberals face immediate deadlines, including cabinet selection and budget presentation. With familiar faces returning, the government must act swiftly to pass crucial legislation before summer recess and address ongoing U.S. trade tensions
Why present global uncertainties, gold price volatility is your sign to increase gold allocation
Long-term economic factors remain supportive of gold. Many investors are under-allocated to gold and, hence, have a significant room to increase. The run-up in gold prices has been structural, not speculative. That said, no asset moves up in a straight line. Global uncertainty is here to stay for now, and gold prices are likely to remain volatile.
Oil falls as economic jitters dampen demand outlook
Crude oil prices experienced a decline in early Asian trading due to investor concerns about demand growth amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Economists fear a potential global recession driven by tariffs, leading to lowered oil demand and price forecasts. Increased output from OPEC+ nations and rising U.S. crude oil stockpiles further contribute to the downward pressure on prices.
Trump’s China tariffs set to unleash supply shock on US economy
Companies are looking for alternative suppliers. The situation could worsen if tariffs remain in place. The US economy may face a recession.
Recession unlikely, but there will be a period that could resemble stagflation: Viktor Shvets, Macquarie Capital
Viktor Shvets of Macquarie Capital suggests the US faces a period resembling stagflation, not outright recession, due to Donald Trump's policies aimed at reshaping American society. He notes that India's economic growth, while strong, needs recalibration and structural reforms to achieve its potential.
US economy was already sputtering before trade pain from Trump's tariffs kicked in
Global economy faces challenges in early 2025. US GDP growth slows down significantly. Trade tensions and tariff policies impact international markets. Canada anticipates election amid trade war with US. China's industrial profits rebound, but tariffs pose risks. Europe focuses on GDP and inflation data. Latin America monitors economic indicators and central bank decisions.
Geopolitical tensions and trade war fears weigh on Indian markets: Ajay Bagga
Indian markets face pressure due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between India and Pakistan, and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Analysts predict potential GDP growth slowdown to 6.3–6.5% for 2025, with expectations of two more RBI rate cuts to support the economy.
Why gold prices could surpass $4,000: JP Morgan’s bullish outlook explained
JP Morgan forecasts a significant rise in gold prices, predicting it could reach $3,675 per ounce by late 2025 and potentially surpass $4,000 by mid-2026. The surge is driven by macroeconomic concerns and geopolitical instability, with strong demand from central banks and investors. Uncertainty around global trade and U.S. policy is fueling central bank buying, as gold remains a trusted hedge against stagflation and recession.
Trade tensions are giving Intel's older chips a second life
While Donald Trump has for now exempted chips from tariffs, a major hit to Intel could come from China's retaliatory tariffs on US imports, with chips manufactured in the US set to face levies of 85% or higher, based on the state-backed China Semiconductor Industry Association's (CSIA) notice earlier in April.
Markets found a temporary bottom on hopes of likely trade deals with China, India: Peter Cardillo
Trade negotiation progress, particularly with China, and anticipated deals with India are boosting market confidence. Earnings are exceeding expectations, though guidance remains uncertain due to trade tensions. Investors are focusing on major companies, with potential for a near-term market rise. The possibility of a recession looms, but lower inflation and trade agreements could prompt a Fed rate cut.
Why are the largest credit card companies stashing funds? Have they sensed something? Is a downturn coming?
Despite Americans' continued spending and credit card usage, major banks are bracing for potential economic turbulence. JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup are increasing their cash reserves and setting aside billions for potential loan losses, anticipating a possible recession. While consumer spending remains strong, delinquencies are rising, signaling a cautious approach from financial institutions.
Global tariff uncertainty may impact growth, but India set to weather the storm: Garima Kapoor
Elara Capital's Garima Kapoor believes India's 6.2% growth forecast by the IMF is realistic, though RBI and the Ministry of Finance may need to revise their estimates downwards. Trade uncertainties persist, but pro-growth policies and favorable cyclical tailwinds support the Indian economy.
As Trump’s 90-day tariff deadline approaches, fear will again overtake greed
Amidst tariff concerns, analysts debate the potential impact of Trump's trade policies. A temporary pause on reciprocal tariffs offered some optimism, yet skepticism remains about a lasting resolution. Trump's determination to reshape US manufacturing and address trade deficits suggests further action beyond the 90-day window.
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