MOODY S ANALYTICS
Trump's tariffs stir economic uncertainty: Is a 2025 recession on the horizon for the U.S?
Tariffs imposed by US President, Donald Trump, have created economic uncertainty. Economists are divided on whether a recession will occur in 2025. Some rely on real-time data, while others trust consumer sentiment. Key indicators like jobless claims and retail sales offer mixed signals. The stock market's decline raises concerns. Tariffs are expected to impact consumer purchasing power later this year.
Trade war uncertainty dampening investment appetite globally: Katrina Ell
So, even though India is less affected from an export point of view because exports are a smaller share of the economy compared to other parts of Asia, in particular Southeast Asia, India is still caught up and we are seeing slightly weaker growth projections expected for this year.
US tariffs likely to hit India's growth directly by as much as 0.5% points, says FinMin Secy
India is actively pursuing a trade agreement with the United States, even as the potential impact of US tariffs on India's GDP growth is estimated to be between 0.2% and 0.5%. Finance Secretary Seth anticipates the Indian economy to expand by approximately 6.5% this fiscal year. The Reserve Bank of India has also projected a 6.5% growth.
India's growth aim cuts do not throw it out of 'fastest growing economy' race
Despite downward revisions from global financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank, India is expected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy. Projections for India’s GDP growth in 2025-26 range between 6.2 per cent and 6.7 per cent. These revisions reflect a broader global economic slowdown, sluggish recovery in China, and U.S. trade policy changes.
Trump goes to war with the US Federal Reserve
President Trump has openly clashed with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over interest rate policy, even threatening to remove him. This unprecedented pressure on the Fed's independence raises concerns about potential destabilization of US financial markets. Experts warn that compromising the Fed's autonomy could weaken the dollar and increase interest rates, ultimately impacting the economy.
Are we heading for a US recession? All your key questions answered
The US economy faces risk of a potential recession and this has raised global economic stability concerns. Trade war with China has weakened business confidence. Economists predict a possible recession within a year. The US recession can reduce import demand. Economists and policymakers are closely monitoring the situation as the fear of a US recession looms.
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China tells Donald Trump to 'stop threatening and blackmailing'
China has urged the US to cease its "threatening and blackmailing" tactics and engage in respectful dialogue to resolve the ongoing trade war, following President Trump's imposition of tariffs reaching up to 245% on some Chinese goods. Beijing insists on equality and mutual benefit in negotiations, emphasizing that while it doesn't seek conflict, it's prepared to defend its interests.
Puravankara registers 9% annual jump in collection in Q4 FY25
Puravankara reported strong FY25 results, with customer collections up 9% to Rs 3,937 crore and pre-sales reaching Rs 5,006 crore. The company invested heavily in land acquisition and plans significant project launches in FY26. Despite a slightly tempered economic outlook, the real estate sector remains robust, driven by premium housing demand.
China's forecast-beating growth belies storm clouds ahead: analysts
China's first-quarter growth exceeded forecasts, but analysts caution that impending tariffs could hinder future progress. Export surges driven by pre-tariff shipments and policy-boosted consumption may be short-lived. Beijing acknowledges global economic challenges and hints at proactive macro policies to bolster domestic spending and mitigate trade war impacts.
China's economy likely grew 5.1% in Q1 on export surge: Poll
China's first-quarter growth is projected at around five percent, fueled by exporters anticipating higher US tariffs. Despite this boost, sluggish domestic consumption and a property market crisis continue to weigh on the economy. Analysts anticipate further economic challenges throughout the year, even as Beijing considers additional measures to stabilize the real estate sector and stimulate demand.
Oil prices flat as US-China trade war weighs on global growth outlook
Oil prices remained steady on Monday. This happened amid worries about the trade war between the United States and China. Beijing increased tariffs on U.S. imports. Trump granted exclusions on tariffs for some electronics. U.S. energy firms cut oil rigs. The United States might stop Iran's oil exports. Both countries held talks regarding Tehran's nuclear program.
US trade uncertainties to undermine business confidence, adversely impact growth in Asian region: Moody's
Moody's Ratings cautions that uncertainties in US trade policy, despite a tariff pause, will likely dampen business confidence and consumer sentiment across Asia, including India, impacting growth prospects. While India's large domestic market offers some buffer, the potential for reshoring manufacturing to the US and ongoing US-China trade tensions pose significant downside risks. The tariff pause increases trade policy uncertainty.
US, China’s looming woes may deal a far bigger blow to India than Trump tariffs
Trump Tariff Impact: Swaminathan Aiyar warns that a potential slowdown in the US and China poses a greater threat to India than current tariffs. Despite a temporary tariff pause, uncertainty persists due to President Trump's unpredictable trade policies. Aiyar suggests a US recession is likely, impacting China and dragging down the global economy.
US tariff pause: Cos should explore alternate mkts, create contingency plan, say experts
EY advises corporates to prepare contingency plans and explore alternative markets during the US's 90-day tariff pause. This period allows India to finalize a bilateral trade agreement with the US, aiming for USD 500 billion in trade by 2030.
Moody's Analytics cuts India's 2025 growth forecast by 30 basis points citing US tariff impact
Moody's Analytics has downgraded India's 2025 growth forecast to 6.1% due to potential U.S. tariffs, despite a temporary freeze. Gems, jewellery, medical devices, and textiles are expected to be most affected. The RBI has responded by cutting the repo rate and adopting an accommodative stance to mitigate the impact and stimulate the domestic economy.
As infertility rates rise, India Inc rolls out family-planning benefits
Major companies like Google, Accenture, and IKEA are offering fertility treatments and support to employees. Benefits include IVF coverage, egg and sperm freezing, and emotional support. These initiatives aim to tackle infertility challenges, providing flexible work policies and leave for treatments. Corporates are also collaborating with healthcare providers to further support employees' reproductive health.
“There will be blood”: JPMorgan warns of 60% global recession odds under Trump tariffs
Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs are raising alarms about a potential U.S. and global recession. Economists from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Moody’s Analytics warn that the trade war could push inflation higher, weaken consumer confidence, and slow economic growth. Markets have already reacted sharply, and global trade tensions are set to escalate. With Trump promising aggressive tariff policies, experts fear the economic fallout could be severe.
US Economy faces tough road ahead with slow growth and stagflation amid tariffs and uncertainty
The US economy faces a slow growth forecast for 2025, with first-quarter GDP predicted at just 0.3% and inflation remaining stubborn at around 2.9%. Weak consumer spending and increasing imports add to the challenges, while economists remain cautiously optimistic about a gradual recovery, though recession risks persist if tariffs are not eased.
U.S economic outlook worsens: Recession fears spike as probability jumps to 36%, GDP forecast slashed, and tariffs overtake inflation as top threat
Economists and analysts have increased the likelihood of a US recession to 36% due to trade policies and tariffs. The 2025 US GDP growth forecast has been reduced. Most experts believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice. Over 70% agree that tariffs are harmful to inflation, jobs, and economic growth.
RBI liquidity boost may lower lending rates sooner than expected
Short-term borrowing costs for Indian lenders are expected to decrease next month due to the central bank's liquidity infusion measures. These initiatives aim to lower rates for instruments like certificates of deposit (CD) and commercial paper (CP), potentially leading to reduced lending rates sooner than thought.
Recession in 2025? Experts say Donald Trump holds the key to America’s economic future; here’s what you should know
The US economy faces potential slowdown or recession due to Trump's trade policies, which include tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. These policies could increase prices and reduce household budgets, affecting consumers. Economists have revised growth and inflation projections, with increased concerns about a possible recession and economic uncertainty for American families.
‘Trumpcession’ coming? Economists warn as $4 trillion wiped out from markets after Trump’s trade salvo backfires
Fears of a looming recession in the US are intensifying as President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies shake investor confidence. Stock markets are in turmoil, businesses are wary of investing, and economists are slashing growth forecasts. While the White House remains optimistic, analysts warn that tariff wars and economic uncertainty could tip the world’s largest economy into decline. With Wall Street bleeding billions and consumer confidence plummeting, the big question remains: is the US on the brink of a downturn?
Fear of becoming obsolete: How to hedge against AI stealing your job
Knowledge workers including administrators, financial analysts, and software developers should prepare for significant changes due to AI advancements. Embracing AI to become more productive and having a backup plan is essential. AI could transform or replace many high-paying jobs, making career adaptability crucial for future job security.
More words than deeds from China on consumption keep deflation in play
Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized consumption in his recent government work report, but economists warn that the government's measures may not be enough to combat deflation. While he proposed increased fiscal stimulus, including subsidies for electric vehicles and welfare increases, these steps were seen as insufficient.
Trump’s biggest trade war salvo since 1930s just one of the shocks for US economy as risks pile up
President Trump's trade-war actions are expected to slow US growth in the near term. Policy uncertainties and potential trade war escalation add to the concerns. There's a focus on rebuilding US industries and small businesses despite rising tariffs, slower growth, and higher inflation impacting consumers and investors.
Trump’s tariffs and their hidden impact on working-class Americans: Rising prices, job losses, and economic uncertainty
Trump’s tariffs have had a major impact on the U.S. economy, leading to higher prices for consumers and job losses in key industries. While these trade policies were intended to protect American businesses, they ended up acting as a hidden tax on working-class families. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports raised costs, leading to inflation and economic uncertainty. Farmers, automakers, and manufacturers faced challenges as retaliatory tariffs hit U.S. exports. The stock market also experienced volatility.
How Trump and Modi economies are mimicking each other
India and the US are witnessing high consumption driven by their top 10% earners. In India, affluent consumers fuel economic growth, focusing on high-end products amidst inflation. In the US, the wealthy's spending sustains economic activity. Reports indicate rising income disparities, with the well-off increasing their expenditures significantly more than the general population.
Will you get Trump's DOGE Dividend? Who’s in, who’s out, and how much? Here's all
A new proposal for a "DOGE Dividend" could see American taxpayers receive checks from government savings—but not everyone would qualify. The idea, championed by investor James Fishback and amplified by Elon Musk and Donald Trump, aims to return 20% of projected savings from federal spending cuts to net-income taxpayers. However, low-income Americans, who pay little to no federal income tax, may be left out. The plan raises economic and political questions, including concerns about feasibility, fairness, and potential economic consequences.
Rupee rises 14 paise to 86.50 against US dollar in early trade
Meanwhile, the US dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.04 per cent higher at 106.41.
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