INDIA ECONOMY
India's economy slows down just when it was supposed to speed up
India's economic optimism has waned over the past year as growth slows to 5.4%, foreign investors pull out, and the rupee falls. Despite infrastructure investments and expanded welfare payments, weak demand and employment issues persist, challenging Modi's government to find new solutions for sustained growth.
Indian economy to grow 6.5-6.8% in 2024-25 fiscal, projects Deloitte
Deloitte India revised its 2024-25 GDP growth projection to 6.5-6.8% amid global trade uncertainties. The economy faces challenges with lower-than-expected Q2 growth (5.4%), lagging government capex, election uncertainties, and high inflation. However, strong rural consumption and a thriving services sector show resilience.
Job market in India needs boost: Raghuram Rajan in Davos
Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan appreciates the Modi government's work on infrastructure but stresses the need to boost the job market. He comments on the rupee depreciation due to the stronger US dollar and discusses the concerns of central banks in emerging markets. Rajan rules out a common currency for BRICS due to geopolitical issues.
Indian economy to grow in range of 6.5-6.8% in FY25: Deloitte
Deloitte India projects India's GDP growth at 6.5-6.8% for the current fiscal, highlighting the need to adapt to global challenges and exploit domestic strengths. The revised projection considers global uncertainties, with significant focus on increased manufacturing exports and the importance of domestic resilience.
Budget 2025: A close look at India¡¯s GDP growth rate before Sitharaman's key announcements in Lok Sabha
India's GDP growth has become a focal point in economic discussions as Budget 2025 approaches. Q2 FY25 saw GDP growth slow to a seven-quarter low of 5.4%, down from 8.1% a year earlier, driven by weaker manufacturing and mining output, though agriculture showed improvement.
Moody's slashes India's economic growth forecast to 7% for FY25
Moody's has reduced India's economic growth forecast for FY 2024 to 7%, down from 8.2%. This adjustment follows FICCI's and ADB's recent revisions, which also reflect concerns over industrial growth and private investments. Despite these reductions, India's per capita GDP has risen by 11% year-on-year.
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India's current economic environment conducive for private investments: CII survey
India's economic environment is favoring private investments with the country emerging as a "bright spot" amid global challenges, according to a CII survey. Early results indicate 97% of firms might increase employment in upcoming years, and 75% believe conditions are suitable for private investments.
10-minute delivery is boosting Indian economy's ¡®brightening spot¡¯, highlights RBI
Private final consumption is boosting India's economic recovery, driven by e-commerce and quick commerce. The RBI suggests fostering competition in these sectors rather than imposing restrictions. Rising demand for household essentials and a robust housing market are contributing to this positive trend, with urban and rural markets showing strong growth potential.
Disinflation can be expected to continue unevenly, RBI says
India¡¯s disinflationary trend is expected to continue, offering limited room for monetary policy easing, according to the RBI¡¯s January 2025 bulletin. This could relieve financially stressed households and lenders facing high credit card defaults. The RBI also noted emerging risks to inflation, making the future path of interest rates uncertain as they navigate these challenges.
India to grow at 6.7% for next 2 years: World Bank
India is set to remain the fastest growing major economy with a 6.7% growth rate in FY26 and FY27, according to the World Bank's report. Growth in the broader South Asian region is also expected to rise, driven by India's strong performance. The report highlights steady investment growth and improvement in GDP per capita for India and China.
FICCI cuts India's GDP growth estimate to 6.4% for FY25
FICCI has revised India's GDP growth projection for 2024-25 down to 6.4% from 7%. The agriculture, industry, and services sectors are expected to grow at 3.6%, 6.3%, and 7.3% respectively. Economists emphasize fiscal consolidation and boosting private consumption, while also focusing on manufacturing incentives and export support amidst external challenges.
Global economic conditions to weaken in 2025, India's strong growth continues: WEF
The World Economic Forum's Chief Economists Outlook predicts weaker global economic conditions in 2025, with significant challenges ahead. Despite some lost momentum, India's strong growth is expected to continue, while Europe and China face weak prospects. Protectionism and trade tensions are anticipated to impact global commerce.
India to grow by 6.4%, and CPI inflation to settle at 4.8% in FY25: FICCI
FICCI predicts India's GDP growth to decline to 6.4% in FY 2024-25 from the previous 8.2%, due to global uncertainties and domestic challenges. Government investments in infrastructure will aid growth, despite subdued private expenditure and geopolitical risks. Manufacturing, electronics, and pharmaceuticals offer potential opportunities.
India poised to become world's 4th largest economy by 2026; GDP to grow 6.8% in FY25: PHDCCI
India is set to become the fourth-largest economy by 2026, surpassing Japan, according to PHDCCI. The country's GDP is projected to grow by 6.8% this year and 7.7% in FY26. PHDCCI calls for lower income tax rates for middle-income earners and a reduction in benchmark interest rates.
Budget 2025: A look at India's forex reserves at play amid rupee volatility
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget for 2025-2026 in February 2025. India¡¯s foreign exchange reserves have decreased, and the Indian rupee has depreciated against the U.S. dollar. Foreign Portfolio Investors have shown a turnaround in net equity inflows. The forthcoming budget is expected to focus on economic stabilization, foreign investment attraction, and sustainable growth.
Budget 2025: A close look at India's infrastructure output within a year before Sitharaman sets the ball rolling in Lok Sabha
India's infrastructure output, encompassing eight core industries, grew 4.3% in November 2024, marking a four-month high but lower than 7.9% in November 2023. Core sector growth for April-November stood at 4.2%, down from 8.7% in 2023-24. Budget 2025 will focus on continuity, strategic realignment, and balancing coalition priorities to address economic demands and foster growth.
Budget 2025: Will India's robust GST kitty help Sitharaman stick to fiscal glide path?
Union Budget 2025: India¡¯s GST collections are set for a strong finish this fiscal year, driven by rural economic resurgence and efforts against tax evasion. This revenue boost will help Finance Minister Sitharaman adhere to fiscal plans while focusing on capital expenditure. The upcoming Budget 2025 will balance economic growth with strategic expenditure, amidst global uncertainties.
The A-Z of India¡¯s economy: What to know before the Union Budget
Union Budget: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to announce the Union Budget 2025 on February 1, 2025. Key economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, fiscal deficit, trade deficit, tax collections, and manufacturing will be discussed. These indicators are vital for India's goal to become the world's third-largest economy by 2030.
India¡¯s retail inflation eases to a four-month low of 5.22% in Dec on easing food costs
India's retail inflation eased to 5.22% in December from 5.48% in November, driven by moderating food prices. Food inflation, a major contributor, has begun to cool due to a bumper summer harvest, despite earlier spikes from unseasonal rains and rising edible oil and cereal prices.
Indian economy likely to be 'a little weaker' in 2025: IMF MD
The Indian economy is expected to be a little weaker in 2025 according to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. Global growth is expected to be steady, but with regional divergence. The United States will see improved economic performance, while China faces deflationary pressure. There will be significant uncertainty around economic policies and trade, particularly influenced by the incoming US administration.
India's November industrial growth jumps to 6-month high; economy looking up after dismal Q2
India's industrial production saw a 5.2% rise in November 2024 compared to the previous year, the highest in six months. This growth was attributed to a favorable base effect and festive spending. Manufacturing, mining, and electricity sectors contributed to this increase, indicating signs of an economic recovery.
India's economy projected to grow 6.6% in 2025, supported by strong private consumption, investment: UN
India's economy is projected to grow by 6.6% in 2025, driven by robust consumption, investment, and strong export growth in services and goods. While global challenges persist, India¡¯s focus on infrastructure and export growth fuels optimism. Inflation in India is expected to decelerate to 4.3%.
India's industrial production growth quickens to a 6-month high of 5.2% in Nov
India's industrial output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), grew by 5.2% in November 2024, reaching a six-month high, up from 3.5% in October. Manufacturing output rose by 5.8%, while mining production increased by 1.9%, and power output grew by 4.4%. For the April-November period, industrial output increased by 4.1%, compared to 6.5% in the same period last year.
Rural consumption will increase but urban consumption may slowdown further in FY26: Report
India's economy is experiencing subdued demand and slower growth across sectors due to weak household incomes and sluggish consumption loans. Fiscal transfers may offer some relief to lower-income households but challenges remain for both rural and urban consumption. Real GDP growth has slowed, reflecting weaker demand, and corporate performance is aligning with this trend.
Indian economy expected to grow at 6.8 % in the next fiscal, FY2025-26: Bank of Baroda
Indian economy is projected to grow by 6.8% in FY 2025-26, supported by strong high-frequency indicators such as air passenger traffic, services PMI, and GST collections. However, potential global trade disruptions and domestic economic events will need close monitoring to sustain growth momentum.
India likely to grow at slower clip of 6.4%, say First Advance Estimates for FY25
India's economy is expected to grow by 6.4% in FY25, the slowest in four years, due to weak manufacturing and low investments, per the National Statistical Office. Economists suggest the government take measures in the upcoming budget to boost growth. The RBI may face pressure to cut rates. Private consumption is positive but private investment is concerning.
India's Dec factory activity growth hits 2024 low, PMI shows
India's manufacturing activity in December 2024 slowed to its weakest pace of the year, despite easing cost pressures and strong jobs growth. The HSBC final PMI fell slightly from November, with slower improvements in output and new orders. International demand improved, supporting exports, but business sentiment and future growth outlook waned.
2025 Forecast: What's coming for the Indian economy in 2025 as it seeks more purple patches?
Outlook for 2025: India's economic growth slowed to 5.4 per cent in Q2, but economists see recovery driven by strong festival activity, rural demand, and potential interest rate cuts. The RBI projects real GDP growth at 6.6 per cent for 2024-25. India remains committed to fiscal prudence with a fiscal deficit target below 4.5 per cent of GDP by FY2025-26.
India's forex reserves fall to $644.39 billion, down $8.4 billion as of Dec 20
India's foreign exchange reserves dipped by $8.4 billion to $644.39 billion as of December 20, according to data shared by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday. For the previous week, India's foreign exchange reserves dropped by $1.98 billion during the week ending December 13, 2024, settling at $652.87 billion.
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