INDIA CHINA ECONOMY

Why China's neighbours may want currency deals with Trump
As currencies in South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan rise, there’s speculation that these countries may use currency revaluation in trade talks with the U.S. Despite the historical disadvantage of a stronger currency for exporters, revaluation may now be a cost-effective bargaining chip.

US-China trade war: From dishes to television — Will prices of household items imported from China rise?
US President Donald Trump is likely to speak with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, this weekend. This comes as American consumers remain concerned about the looming price hikes on imports from various parts of the world, especially China.

Trump wants Apple to stop moving iPhone production to India, says New Delhi can take care of itself
U.S. President Donald Trump said he urged Apple CEO Tim Cook to stop expanding manufacturing in India, expressing concern during their recent conversation in Qatar. Trump stated that Apple would instead increase its production in the United States following their discussion.

OPEC sees India's oil demand rising 3.4% in 2025, double the pace of China
OPEC projects India's oil demand to surge, outpacing China's growth in 2025 and 2026, driven by a robust economy and government support. While the US remains the top consumer, India's demand will rise significantly, fueled by transportation, manufacturing, and infrastructure projects. Diesel will be the primary driver, with crude imports hitting record highs, led by Russia as the top supplier.

India must work with Chinese capital, supply chains to become manufacturing hub: Former Intel executive
“India needs a national industrial policy, not just slogans. ‘Make in India’ has to mean software, services, chips, cloud, the whole stack,” former Intel executive William Huo said in a social media post. Huo also warned that cutting ties with China completely is not a realistic option if India wants to become a strong manufacturing country.

JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs cut back US recession forecasts after US-China announce tariff truce
Easing trade tensions between the US and China have prompted major brokerages like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan to revise their US recession forecasts. Goldman Sachs reduced its recession estimate to 35%, while JP Morgan places the probability below 50%.
India displaces Japan as most preferred market in Asia, shows BofA survey
Japan, previously the frontrunner, has slipped to second place, while China makes a surprising comeback, leaping from the bottom to the third spot in just a month. Thailand, however, retains its position — though unfortunately — as Asia’s least favored market.
Selectively position in largecaps, avoid over enthusiasm: Sudip Bandyopadhyay
The entire trade war scenario which was developing around us with the US president going on about it, things are cooling down a bit. With their kind of truce with China for 90 days, with very reasonable tariffs on both the sides augurs definitely well for US economy and the global economy as well.
Rupee steady at 85.33/$ amid oil demand, trade optimism
The rupee opened at 84.70/$1 versus 85.37 per dollar close on the previous day (Friday). The initial optimism seen in the rupee on Tuesday came on the back of US-China trade agreement and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan.
EaseMyTrip’s Nishant Pitti urges boycott of Chinese endorsements over Pakistan support
Days after he urged people not to travel to Turkey and Azerbaijan for the two countries' blatant support to Pakistan in the context of Operation Sindoor, EaseMyTrip founder and chairman Nishant Pitti has called for making right choices in the context of Chinese products and backed call for using "Made in India" products.
Two truces bring multi-pronged relief for Indian rupee
The Indian rupee saw relief after India and Pakistan ceased military hostilities. A tariff truce between the United States and China also helped. The rupee recovered its losses. It strengthened to 84.6350 against the U.S. dollar. Forward premiums and volatility expectations eased. The U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs temporarily. This eased fears of a global economic trade war.
GIFT Nifty down 160 points; here's the trading setup for today's session
Indian equities surged on Monday, with the Nifty reaching a seven-month high, fueled by easing geopolitical tensions and economic stability signs. Market participants are closely watching upcoming inflation data releases from India and the US, along with quarterly results from major companies like Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors. Positive momentum is expected to continue, with analysts projecting further gains.
US-China tariff cuts may hit Indian export edge, say exporters
A US-China trade deal, featuring tariff reductions, presents both challenges and opportunities for India. While it could intensify competition in some markets, India can leverage its strengths in sectors like pharmaceuticals and IT. Exporters emphasize the need for proactive engagement with the US to secure preferential trade access, especially with ongoing BTA negotiations.
US-China deal to roll back high tariffs presents challenges, opportunities for India: Exporters
A temporary tariff truce between the US and China presents India with both opportunities and challenges. While increased US-China trade may intensify competition in some markets, India can leverage its strengths in sectors like pharmaceuticals and IT. Experts suggest India should proactively seek preferential trade access with the US and encourage domestic manufacturing to mitigate potential risks.
Is a US recession imminent and what would be the impact on India? How should we manage a robust portfolio in this scenario?
US tariff policies have stirred economic uncertainty, potentially triggering a short-term recession due to delayed capital expenditure and cautious investment. While the IMF forecasts reduced global growth, India faces impacts on exports, manufacturing, and commodity prices. Amidst this volatility, bonds emerge as a promising asset class for investors seeking stable returns, offering an opportunity to navigate the uncertain market landscape.
India's manufacturing and services PMI is highest among developed and emerging markets: J P Morgan
India is leading the world in manufacturing and services. J.P. Morgan's report shows India's PMI is the highest. Manufacturing PMI is at 58.2 and services PMI is at 58.7. China's PMI is lower than India's. The U.S. and Eurozone show mixed economic signals. India's strong domestic demand drives its growth. This reflects business optimism and economic momentum.
IMF, put some ifs & buts for Pakistan
Calls for IMF reforms are growing, incorporating India's concerns about Pakistan's alleged support for terrorism. The current quota system disadvantages emerging economies, and governance structures need adjustments for fair representation. Increased surveillance and project monitoring are crucial to aid struggling borrowers like Pakistan, ensuring accountability and potentially curbing radicalization.
India must choose its own path for a stronger and more equitable future
The article critiques neoliberal free-market capitalism, highlighting its negative impacts on working-class people and advocating for a fairer global trade system. It contrasts India's post-1991 economic path with China's, suggesting India should adopt a new, more equitable economic model. The author urges Indian economists to reimagine the nation's economic structure for greater equality and freedom.
Empty store shelves, mass layoffs, and a surge in 'For Lease' signs spark fears that a full-blown recession is just weeks away
Empty shelves and job layoffs are warning signs that the U.S. economy could slide into a recession by summer 2025. With container ships from China running below normal capacity, retailers like Walmart and Target are seeing shortages. Over 275,000 U.S. jobs were cut in March, including massive layoffs in the federal government. As trade tensions with China continue, small businesses are closing, and spending is falling.
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