HIGH INFLATION
Dollar poised for third weekly gain as tariff concerns ease
The U.S. dollar is on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by positive developments in trade talks and encouraging economic data, easing concerns about the U.S. economy. Wall Street experienced a rally driven by strong tech earnings and a better-than-expected manufacturing report.
US yields rise after better than expected manufacturing report
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose from three-week lows on Thursday after a better than expected manufacturing report for April, which also showed that tariffs on imported goods were straining supply chains and maintaining elevated prices for inputs.
Gold price forecast: Why did gold fall below $3,300 and what Trump's new China tariffs and upcoming US jobs data mean for gold’s next big move
Gold price forecast: Gold price slipped below $3,300 this week, raising eyebrows across markets. Investors are now closely watching US economic data, the dollar's strength, and Trump’s fresh trade moves. This dip comes after gold's record-breaking rally, but shifting risk sentiment and easing geopolitical fears have shaken its safe-haven status. With rate cut hopes still alive and global cues uncertain, will gold rebound or drop further?
US economy contracts first time in three years by 0.3% in Q1; Trump's tariffs unleash flood of imports
The US economy faced a contraction in the first quarter. Businesses imported goods to avoid higher costs. This offset President Trump's tariff policy. The GDP decreased by 0.3%. Economists had predicted a 0.3% increase. A surge in the goods trade deficit contributed to this decline. Consumer spending saw moderate growth. Inflation is expected to rise further.
BOJ keeps rates steady, cuts growth forecasts
The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates at 0.5% but lowered economic growth predictions due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs. While core consumer inflation forecasts were also reduced, the BOJ anticipates inflation to remain around 2% through fiscal year 2028, suggesting potential rate hikes will continue. Markets are closely monitoring how U.S. tariffs will affect the BOJ's rate-hike strategy.
Cheaper energy may ease global inflation: World Bank's deputy chief economist Ayhan Kose
The World Bank anticipates stronger global growth if trade tensions reduce. Commodity prices may initially drop but could rise higher than expected. Lower oil prices may offset growth headwinds for importers like India. Gold prices are projected to surge significantly in 2025, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank purchases. This marks a decade of annual increases.
Dollar steady but vulnerable as tariff worries take hold
The White House has retreated several times on the sweeping tariffs Trump unveiled in early April that led to a global stock market meltdown and prompted investors to flee the normally safe-haven U.S. dollar and Treasury debt.
Investors are getting interested again
Foreign investors are showing renewed interest in Indian equities due to low trade disruption exposure and potential US tariff deals. This surge in FPI activity, driven by attractive valuations and strong earnings, offsets concerns about regional security. A positive outlook for domestic consumption, rural spending, and US trade negotiations further strengthens the Indian market's appeal.
Shoppers Stop Q4 Results: Profit plummets over 91% on muted demand
Indian departmental store chain Shoppers Stop on Tuesday posted a more than 91% decline in fourth-quarter profit, as consumers dealing with high cost of living in urban centers cut back on discretionary spending.
Gold on Akshaya Tritiya? Grandma was right & you could have been richer
Driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, gold prices have surged, delivering impressive returns, especially for those who bought on Akshaya Tritiya. While gold offers diversification and liquidity, experts advise allocating only 15-20% of a portfolio to it. Sovereign Gold Bonds provide tax benefits, and Indian women's significant gold holdings underscore its enduring value as a store of wealth.
AWL Agri Business ups sales forecast on delivery boom, easing food prices
AWL Agri Business, formerly Adani Wilmar, anticipates sales volume growth exceeding 10% in fiscal 2026, driven by booming 10-minute delivery platforms and easing food prices. CEO Angshu Mallick expects edible oil sales to rise by 7%-10% this fiscal year. The company plans to expand its direct store reach by 12%-15%, serving nearly 1 million outlets.
Gold & mutual funds: Which one is right for your portfolio now?
Amidst market volatility, experts suggest allocating a portion of your portfolio to gold for managing risk due to its low correlation with other assets. For long-term wealth creation, equity mutual funds are recommended, leveraging economic growth and compounding. A balanced approach involves combining equity funds with a 10-15% gold allocation for diversification and downside protection.
Jennifer Lopez takes a sharp jab at the economy in viral Instagram post as Americans brace for rising prices and looming recession
Jennifer Lopez humorously addressed economic concerns by sharing a meme referencing her song "Love Don't Cost a Thing," altered to reflect inflation. This playful jab at rising prices resonated with her followers amidst growing fears of a US recession and potential tariff hikes, sparking agreement and humorous reactions in the comments section.
NFO Alert: DSP Mutual Fund launches Silver ETF Fund of Fund
DSP Mutual Fund has launched the DSP Silver ETF Fund of Fund, offering investors easy access to silver without a demat account. The fund invests in DSP Silver ETF units, benefiting from industrial demand, currency depreciation, and potential price rise amid supply deficits. The NFO closes on May 9.
Recession risk deepens, fear haunts economies and businesses as Trump's tariff damage spreads
A recent Reuters poll reveals economists are increasingly worried about a potential global recession this year, largely blaming U.S. tariffs for damaging business confidence. Overwhelmingly, economists view these tariffs negatively, leading to lowered global growth forecasts. Concerns extend to stagflation, with central banks struggling to meet inflation targets.
Global giants P&G to PepsiCo look to India for growth while small rivals speed ahead
Global giants are eyeing India for growth amid challenges in developed markets. Companies like P&G and PepsiCo see steady consumption in India. Government incentives and lower inflation are boosting growth. Small and regional players are also gaining market share. High inflation and cost of living pose challenges. Companies are mindful of regional competition. Low inflation can also help small brands.
Dollar sellers pause with eye on US jobs
The dollar began the week steadily as investors await key U.S. economic data, including jobs figures and GDP, to assess the impact of trade tensions. Despite a recent bounce, the dollar is on track for its largest monthly fall in years, fueled by concerns over U.S. trade policy.
Recession unlikely, but there will be a period that could resemble stagflation: Viktor Shvets, Macquarie Capital
Viktor Shvets of Macquarie Capital suggests the US faces a period resembling stagflation, not outright recession, due to Donald Trump's policies aimed at reshaping American society. He notes that India's economic growth, while strong, needs recalibration and structural reforms to achieve its potential.
US economy was already sputtering before trade pain from Trump's tariffs kicked in
Global economy faces challenges in early 2025. US GDP growth slows down significantly. Trade tensions and tariff policies impact international markets. Canada anticipates election amid trade war with US. China's industrial profits rebound, but tariffs pose risks. Europe focuses on GDP and inflation data. Latin America monitors economic indicators and central bank decisions.
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