GROWTH RATES

Bank lending growth slows to 12% in FY25
Credit demand at mainstream lenders slowed to 12% in FY25, down from 16% the previous year, influenced by regulatory curbs on retail and unsecured lending. While most sectors experienced a slowdown, loans to industry remained stable. Notably, lending against gold surged due to rising prices, and renewable energy saw significant growth.

'Really like where we are at now': Trump trade adviser's bizarre remark as US economy shrinks amid tariff war
Donald Trump's chief trade adviser Peter Navarro has reacted after US economy contracted in first quarter amid tariff war. He also went to hit out at media outlets saying news outlets are using “scare tactics” to create more fear among people. Trump’s latest import tax rollout has ignited a tariff war with foreign trading partners and adversaries.

US economy contracts first time in three years by 0.3% in Q1; Trump's tariffs unleash flood of imports
The US economy faced a contraction in the first quarter. Businesses imported goods to avoid higher costs. This offset President Trump's tariff policy. The GDP decreased by 0.3%. Economists had predicted a 0.3% increase. A surge in the goods trade deficit contributed to this decline. Consumer spending saw moderate growth. Inflation is expected to rise further.

Taiwan unexpectedly raises 2025 full-year GDP forecast on strong tech demand
Taiwan raised its 2025 growth forecast to 3.6% after strong Q1 performance driven by booming tech exports, particularly AI-related demand. Despite US tariff uncertainty, robust production and investment buoyed outlook. Officials remain cautious about H2, but tech momentum supports continued economic strength.

US auto tariff relief brings temporary respite for OEMs, but uncertainty looms: Jay Kale
Auto tariff relief in the US offers a temporary respite for OEMs, but inflationary pressures persist across sectors. Uncertainty looms, potentially leading to a demand slump, exacerbated by recent guidance cuts from Porsche and pre-buying trends. While domestic auto majors acknowledge a recent slowdown, TVS remains optimistic about two-wheeler growth, contrasting with Maruti's muted outlook on passenger vehicles.

RBI has room for more rate cuts, but with caution, says rate panel member
Saugata Bhattacharya, an external member of India's rate-setting panel, suggests India has scope for further rate cuts due to declining inflation and growth uncertainties. However, he advises a cautious and calibrated approach to policy easing. Bhattacharya anticipates rate cuts to transmit to consumers in the coming quarters and believes liquidity infusions are easier to reverse if inflationary pressures arise.
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Trent shares drop 4% after Q4 profit drops 55% YoY to Rs 318 crore; Nuvama cuts target price
Trent Q4 results FY25: Trent reported a 55% YoY drop in Q4FY25 net profit at Rs 318 crore, despite a 28% rise in revenue to Rs 4,217 crore. Sequentially, PAT fell 36%. Zudio crossed $1 billion in annual revenue. Nuvama retained a ‘Buy’ but cut its target price to Rs 6,224, citing concerns over slowing like-for-like growth and Star business weakness.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Gold’s rally to persist short-term, but maintain only 3-5% allocation, says Manish Jain
The last couple of months have been quite interesting, if I may use that term. On one hand we have the economy on the recovery path, we have witnessed a couple of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and personal income tax rate cuts, on the other hand the global scenario continues to remain uncertain.
Cooler April cools sales: ACs, fridges see sharp drop as summer falters in south, east
Summer product companies face challenges as April sales decline. Air conditioner and refrigerator sales dropped significantly in some regions. Beverage sales saw a marginal impact in select markets. Lower heatwave days and moderate temperatures contributed to the slowdown. Companies postpone planned price hikes. They anticipate improved sales with expected heatwaves in May and June.
Embassy REIT surpasses leasing target, clocks 10% growth in revenue and net operating income
Embassy Office Parks REIT reported a 10% increase in both revenue and net operating income for FY25, driven by strong leasing activity, particularly from Global Capability Centers. The REIT exceeded its leasing guidance, achieving 6.6 million sqft in leases and anticipates double-digit distribution growth in FY26.
US goods trade deficit widens sharply in March
The U.S. goods trade deficit significantly widened in March, climbing 9.6% to $162.0 billion, as imports surged by $16.3 billion amid concerns over potential tariffs. This import surge is expected to negatively impact the first quarter's GDP growth, potentially slowing it to 0.3%. Uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade policies also contributed to the economic slowdown.
Indian authorities keen to charge merchants fees to bolster homegrown payments network, sources say
India's payments authority, central bank, and industry are urging the government to allow a fee on digital payments to large merchants via UPI. This Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) aims to boost investment for payments firms and revive slowing UPI growth. A rate of 0.2% to 0.3% is suggested. The final decision rests with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's office.
TVS Motor shares slip 3% despite 76% YoY surge in Q4 profit, strong revenue growth
TVS Motor Company's shares declined 3% following Q4 results that, despite a 76% YoY jump in standalone net profit to Rs 852 crore and a 17% rise in revenue to Rs 9,550 crore, disappointed investors. While the company reported its highest-ever operating EBITDA, concerns linger regarding investments in subsidiaries and challenges adapting to Euro 5+ norms for Norton bikes.
Industrial Output grows 3% in March; Gains in power & manufacturing sectors help overall growth
India's industrial output saw a 3% year-on-year increase in March, driven by growth in electricity and manufacturing, according to official data. While overall industrial activity grew by 4% in FY25, it was lower than the previous year. Key sectors like basic metals, motor vehicles, and electrical equipment contributed positively, while mining slowed down.
Reliance Industries share price prediction: Brokerages see up to 31% upside after Q4 results
Reliance Industries' Q4 earnings beat estimates with a 2% YoY profit rise to Rs 19,407 crore, driving a 4.4% stock rally. Brokerages raised targets up to Rs 1,708, citing strong growth prospects across energy, retail, and telecom segments, despite some softness in Jio’s performance and cautious capex outlook.
IPO-bound Meesho to change Indian parent entity’s name from Fashnear Technologies
Meesho’s board has approved renaming its Indian entity, Fashnear Technologies Pvt Ltd, to Meesho Pvt Ltd, aligning corporate and brand identity ahead of its IPO. The company has filed for approval with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs and NCLT. Meesho reported 34% order growth and 187 million annual transacting users as it prepares for a listing.
Housing demand, price growth to moderate in FY26 amid increasing inventory levels
Indian housing demand shows steady growth despite global economic challenges. Home sales surged in FY24 across top cities like Mumbai and Chennai. However, growth is expected to slow down in FY26 due to high prices. NCR, Bengaluru, and Mumbai are likely to remain resilient markets. Tier I players are expected to lead sales. Unsold inventory might increase with new launches.
Recession unlikely, but there will be a period that could resemble stagflation: Viktor Shvets, Macquarie Capital
Viktor Shvets of Macquarie Capital suggests the US faces a period resembling stagflation, not outright recession, due to Donald Trump's policies aimed at reshaping American society. He notes that India's economic growth, while strong, needs recalibration and structural reforms to achieve its potential.
RBI Governor pitches India story in US, calls nation 'a partner in prosperity'
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra promoted India as a prime long-term investment destination, citing its robust growth and stability amidst global economic challenges. India's average annual growth rate of 8.2% over the past four years makes it the fastest-growing major economy. Strong domestic demand, policy continuity, and significant foreign exchange reserves further enhance India's attractiveness to investors.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra urges US industry to invest in India
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra has urged US industry leaders to invest in India, highlighting its position as the fastest-growing major economy. He emphasized India's policy consistency, stable macroeconomic fundamentals, and congenial business environment. Malhotra pointed out the country's remarkable resilience, with an average annual growth rate of 8.
Employment in India grown faster than working-age population: World Bank report
India's job market is experiencing growth, with employment rates outpacing the working-age population since 2021-22, particularly among women. Urban unemployment has fallen to a low of 6.6 per cent, while rural women are increasingly engaged in agriculture. However, challenges persist, including high youth unemployment and gender disparities in paid work.
RBI leans towards growth as Governor Malhotra backs rate cut
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signals a shift towards prioritizing economic growth, according to recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes. Governor Sanjay Malhotra suggests current conditions favor monetary easing, with inflation near the 4% target. The MPC voted to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points and adopt an accommodative stance.
NBFC's credit growth to moderate to 13-15% in FY25 and FY26 from 17% witnessed in last two fiscals: ICRA
The credit growth of the non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) is expected to ease to 13-15 per cent in financial year 2025 (FY25) and FY2026 from the 17 per cent in the previous two fiscals, rating agency ICRA said in a report.
US tariffs could shave up to half a percentage point off India GDP, says finance secretary
India's Finance Secretary Ajay Seth indicated that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could reduce India's GDP growth by 0.2-0.5 percentage points. While projecting a current growth rate of 6.5%, Seth expressed concerns about trade-related global slowdown. He also mentioned ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. aiming for a potential 7% growth rate in the next decade.
Impact of trade wars on growth-inflation dynamics weighed on MPC vote
The RBI lowered the repo rate to 6% for the second consecutive time, shifting to an accommodative stance to boost private consumption and investment amid global trade uncertainties. While members unanimously voted for the cut, concerns remain about the trade war's impact on growth.
IMF says slashes China growth forecast for this year to 4%
The IMF has revised China's 2025 economic growth forecast to four percent, significantly below Beijing's five percent target, due to an escalating trade war with the US. This downgrade reflects concerns about the property sector crisis, local government debt, and weak consumer spending.
India needs 7.3% annual growth to be a developed country by 2047: CSEP
India needs a 7.3% annual growth rate until 2047 to achieve developed nation status, requiring states to lead reforms in land, labor, capital, education, and health. A uniform strategy is imprudent due to states' heterogeneity. Gujarat, Karnataka, and others should remove obstacles, while Rajasthan, Bihar, and others should improve growth attributes.
Fitch lowers India growth forecast for FY26 to 6.4%
Fitch Ratings has revised India's FY26 growth forecast downward to 6.4% due to escalating global trade tensions and reduced global GDP projections. The US tariffs, particularly on China and India, are expected to negatively impact India's net trade contribution. Global growth is anticipated to weaken, with the US economy slowing and inflation rising, further affecting India's economic outlook.
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