Did Covid-19 lockdown cause temperatures on the Moon to drop? All you need to know

Did temperatures on the moon dip due to the world's Covid-induced lockdown? Scientists have been arguing about this curious topic recently.

In a surprising revelation, two scientists last year suggested that the global lockdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic had effects that even reached the moon, resulting in a slight decrease in surface temperatures. But a recent study has challenged this claim, arguing it is impossible to draw a direct link between this temperature drop and the reduction in global emissions brought about by the lockdown measures.

Did pandemic affect the moon?

A 2024 study linked worldwide lockdowns with a drop in heat radiation reaching the Moon from Earth – but now scientists say that wasn't actually what was going on.

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According to last year hypothesis, as businesses closed their doors in 2020 and we all spent more time at home, carbon emissions dropped and there was a drop in terrestrial radiation- the heat being generated by our planet, and taken up by the Moon. While everything was shut down during the pandemic, there were minimal sources emitting smoke.

The potential link between emission and moon temperatures led two researchers from India to explore whether these changes in the atmosphere might have affected the moon. "We thought it would be a rare opportunity to investigate the effects of [Covid] on the moon," Durga Prasad, a scientist at the Physical Research Laboratory in Ahmedabad and lead author of the study, told Space.com.

Prasad and study co-author G. Ambily, also of PRL, reviewed data collected from a variety of spots near the lunar equator by NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). They discovered that surface temperatures dropped in the evening by 8 to 10 degrees Kelvin between April and May 2020.

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Their findings revealed a fascinating trend: during April and May 2020 evenings, surface temperatures plummeted by an impressive 8 to 10 degrees Kelvin. This notable drop was intriguingly linked to the global shutdown that marked the pandemic's peak.

However, everyone does not agree with this conclusion. "The process in reality is very complex, and I believe not all factors were considered," Shirin Haque, a researcher at the University of the West Indies in Trinidad, told Space.com. Haque and her colleague presented a dissenting view of the original data. "That is what may have led them to the conclusion they arrived at."

When Covid-19 was first identified in early 2020, its country of origin, China, quickly closed down several cities. In the following months, other nations implemented similar measures, resulting in a global lockdown after the World Health Organization declared the situation a pandemic in March.

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What do independent studies show?

Independent studies indicated that the lockdown notably impacted Earth's atmosphere. But scientific discussions are often contentious, and recent findings have shown that conclusions can ignite debates.

Shirin Haque shared her perspective with Space.com: "The process is very complex, and I believe not all factors were considered."

Haque and her colleague took a critical stance on the original data they examined. Receiving the article from a friend who questioned its validity, Haque expressed her initial surprise at discovering it was published in a respected astronomy journal.

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"I was taken aback and assumed it originated from a questionable source, only to find it's credible," she said.

Motivated, Haque engaged her astronomical peers in discussions about these new findings. "Everyone responded with disbelief and skepticism," she recounted. This led her and colleague William Schonberg from the Missouri University of Science and Technology to delve deeper into the results, which they found "too incredible to be true."

Their investigative research was ultimately published in MNRAS in January 2025.

While the effects of Earthshine on lunar surface heating are well-documented, Haque and Schonberg noted a reduction in surface temperature during the nights of April and May 2020. Their contention questions the relationship between the observed cooling and the global lockdown.

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They pointed out the significant timing of the temperature decrease. The Prasad-Ambily paper focuses on measurements from April to May, while Haque’s research highlights a gradual temperature decline starting in 2019, well before the lockdown measures were implemented.

They argue this trend was neither sudden nor isolated.

Expressing disappointment over the opacity surrounding how the trendline was constructed, Haque called the lack of clarification "unfortunate." She further remarked, "If the trendline could be misleading, it should not have been included."