Once poised for power, Canada’s Pierre Poilievre now trails in polls, and analysts say one man is to blame for the slide; here's who it is

Pierre Poilievre looked like he had it all lined up. As leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, he was ahead in the polls, his rallies were packed, and he had a strong base behind him. But fast forward to today, and things have taken a sharp turn. Poilievre is now trailing the Liberals, and one name keeps coming up when analysts explain the shift: Donald Trump.

Trump, who is now serving another term as President of the United States, may not be running in Canada, but his presence is being felt in a big way north of the border.

Why is Donald Trump impacting Canadian politics right now?

It might sound odd at first. After all, Donald Trump isn't Canadian and he’s not campaigning in Canada. But his return to the White House in 2024 has reshaped the tone and direction of conservative politics across North America. Trump’s recent comments about Canada have also caused a stir.

In a recent Fox News interview, Trump criticized Poilievre and said he’d “rather deal with a Liberal than a Conservative” when it comes to Canadian leadership. He even said Pierre Poilievre was “no friend of mine,” sparking headlines across both countries.

For Poilievre, that kind of public snub is more than just awkward — it’s politically damaging.

What did the polls look like before and after Trump’s comments?

Back in early 2024, Poilievre’s Conservatives were consistently leading in national polls. According to data from Abacus Data and Angus Reid at the time, they were ahead of the Liberals by roughly 5 to 7 points. But after Trump’s return and especially after the Fox News interview aired, the numbers began to slip.

By March 2025, a fresh Ipsos poll showed the Liberals, now led by Mark Carney, edging ahead by 3 points — 34% to the Conservatives' 31%.

It’s not just about raw numbers either. Among key voting groups like suburban Ontario residents and millennial parents, support for Poilievre has fallen sharply.

Is Poilievre’s connection to populism hurting his image?

That’s a big part of the story. Poilievre has often used a populist tone — criticizing the “elite,” standing with “ordinary Canadians,” and blasting mainstream media. At one point, that helped him gain momentum. But now, with Trump back in power, some Canadians are seeing those tactics in a different light.

Political strategist Shachi Kurl explained to Global News that many Canadians are “wary of extremism” and don’t want to see their country go the way of polarized American politics.

Poilievre is now trying to shift gears. He’s distanced himself from Trump, toned down his rhetoric, and even praised some centrist policies. But it’s not clear yet whether voters believe the shift is genuine.

How has Mark Carney taken advantage of the moment?

Mark Carney, a former Bank of Canada governor and international finance expert, has stepped into the spotlight with a calmer, more centrist approach. His campaign has focused on stability, economic recovery, and global cooperation — messages that seem to resonate in a post-Trump political climate.

In recent speeches, Carney hasn’t directly attacked Poilievre but has warned against “importing divisive politics from other countries,” a clear nod to Trump-style politics.

The Liberals have also ramped up ads positioning Carney as a leader who can work constructively with, but also stand up to, a tough Trump-led America.

Could Trump’s trade stance also be driving Canadian concerns?

Absolutely. Trump’s “America First” policies are making a comeback, and they’re already affecting how Canadians think about their economy.

Recent threats from the Trump administration about reworking trade deals and taxing Canadian imports have made headlines. For a country that sends 75% of its exports to the U.S., that’s a serious issue. Many Canadian voters are asking: who can stand up to Trump without making things worse?

Right now, it seems more voters trust Carney to handle that balancing act.

What happens next for Poilievre and the Conservatives?

There’s still time before Canada’s next federal election, expected later in 2025. Poilievre could regain ground, especially if economic conditions worsen or if Carney makes missteps. But the Conservative leader is in a tricky spot.

He needs to keep his base energized while appealing to moderate voters. At the same time, he has to distance himself from Trump without turning off right-leaning supporters who still admire the former businessman-turned-president.

It’s a narrow path, and one misstep could cost him dearly.

Is Trump the turning point in Canada’s 2025 election?

Right now, all signs point to yes. While Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot in Canada, his return to the presidency has created ripple effects that are being felt across the border. From polling numbers to campaign strategy, Trump’s influence is real — and it might be enough to reshape the outcome of Canada’s next federal election.

As the race heats up, voters will be watching closely to see who can strike the right tone in a rapidly changing political landscape.