Canada Polls 2025: Mark Carney’s Liberals secure victory amid Trump threats in Canadian elections

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has won Canada’s federal election on Monday, turning around a weak campaign amid a wave of nationalist sentiment provoked by U.S. President Donald Trump's annexation threats. But, CTV and CBC said the Liberals had not yet secured the 172 electoral districts, known as seats, they needed for a majority. Canada's Liberals to form a minority government, reports CTV.

The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reported that the Liberals would secure more seats in Parliament’s 343-seat House than the opposition Conservatives, though it remained unclear if they would achieve an outright majority to govern independently.

The outcome marked a stunning reversal for the Liberals, who until recently appeared headed for defeat.

Trump’s interference reshaped the campaign

The election was effectively reshaped when President Trump, in a series of online posts, attacked Canada's economy and questioned its sovereignty, suggesting it should join the U.S. as the 51st state. Trump wrote on election day: “It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!”

His comments infuriated voters across Canada. In response, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre posted: “President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box. Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.”

The Liberals seized the moment. Prime Minister Carney warned, “The Americans want to break us so they can own us. Those aren't just words. That's what's at risk.”

Also Read: How Mark Carney led Liberal Party towards potential victory despite Justin Trudeau's waning popularity before polls

Canada Election 2025: A new Prime Minister and a new battle

Mark Carney, a former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, rose to the leadership of the Liberal Party following the resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trudeau had seen his popularity fall sharply during his final years in office amid rising living costs and immigration pressures.

Carney’s steady hand on economic matters, and his warnings about threats to Canada’s sovereignty, helped the Liberals galvanise support. He urged voters: “President Trump has some obsessive ideas, and that is one. It’s not a joke. It’s his very strong desire to make this happen. It’s one of the reasons why this crisis is so serious.”

Nationalism surge after Trump’s threats

Prior to Trump’s intervention, Conservative leader Poilievre had positioned the election as a referendum on the unpopular Trudeau legacy. However, Trump's second-term victory in the U.S. and renewed threats against Canada upended the political calculus.

Trump's aggressive rhetoric, including threats of sweeping tariffs and attacks on Canadian manufacturing, pushed many Canadians towards the Liberals. Record numbers — 7.3 million voters — cast their ballots early, a sign of the heightened emotions and stakes.

Canadian historian Robert Bothwell noted that Poilievre's campaign bore uncomfortable similarities to Trump's. “He appeals to the same sense of grievance,” Bothwell said. “It’s like Trump standing there saying, 'I am your retribution.’” He added bluntly: “The Liberals ought to pay him. Trump talking is not good for the Conservatives.”

Also Read: Who is Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader at the heart of Canada's election battle as Trump stokes tensions

Cost of living, trade fears remain looming issues

Despite the election result, major challenges loom. Canada's deep trade ties with the U.S. — more than 75% of its exports head south — mean that any new tariffs could inflict severe economic damage.

Both Carney and Poilievre had promised to pursue swift renegotiations of the Canada-U.S. free trade deal to secure economic stability. But only Carney now holds the mandate to pursue that path.

Carney’s past experience managing financial crises may prove vital as Canada braces for potential shocks. His leadership at the Bank of Canada and later at the Bank of England during turbulent times earned him an international reputation for steady management.

Canadians respond to the moment

On election day, Poilievre and his wife walked hand-in-hand to cast their votes in Ottawa, calling on Canadians to “Get out to vote for a change.”

In Mississauga, sisters Laiqa and Mahira Shoaib reflected the divided mood. Laiqa, a healthcare worker, voted for the New Democratic Party, while Mahira, a bank employee, supported the Conservatives. “He is business-minded, and that’s what we need right now,” Mahira said of Poilievre.

Meanwhile, Liberal voter Reid Warren captured the sentiment that pushed many back to the governing party. “Poilievre sounds like mini-Trump to me," he said. On the U.S. president’s tariff threats, Warren added, "Canadians coming together from, you know, all the shade being thrown from the States is great, but it’s definitely created some turmoil, that’s for sure.”

The campaign was briefly disrupted by a deadly attack at a Vancouver street fair over the weekend, later determined not to be terrorism-related. Nevertheless, it underscored the tense national atmosphere as Canadians weighed questions of security, sovereignty, and economic survival.

Foreign policy had not played such a central role in a Canadian election since 1988, when free trade with the U.S. was the defining issue.

This time, though, the stakes were starker: not just trade or tariffs, but the very idea of Canada’s independence.

And voters made their choice clear.

(With inputs from AP)