‘Two-front war no longer a possibility—It’s a reality’: Army chief Upendra Dwivedi fires warning shot

India’s ambition to emerge as the natural leader of the Global South is being hindered by China’s growing economic and strategic clout, Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi said on Sunday. Delivering the fourth General Bipin Rawat Memorial Lecture in Delhi, he highlighted the increasing complexity China’s rise brings to global geopolitics.

“The rise of China as a dominant economic and strategic force adds complexity, creates competition, and hampers India's effort to be the natural leader for the Global South,” General Dwivedi stated.

He urged India to look towards Africa as a future power centre, recognising its potential role in the shifting global order. Despite its demographic and geographic advantages, India remains at a relatively lower global standing, he observed.


“With the democratic shift and resource control race, we need to look at possibilities of Africa as a future power centre... India’s position will remain pivotal due to its geography, demography, democracy, prosperity, soft power, and inclusive approach,” he said.

Roadblocks in Global Influence

General Dwivedi pointed to the obstacles India faces in shaping international policies. He noted that despite its credentials—the largest population, the world’s largest democracy, and a key geostrategic location—India continues to struggle for greater influence.

“We have been repeatedly blocked, leaving us with little ability to shape key international decisions directly. Even BRICS has faced setbacks. Its purported attempt to upend the mighty US dollar has invited an open pushback from the Trump administration. In light of the same, we need to closely watch SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation),” he said.

The Growing China-Pakistan Threat

General Dwivedi also made a veiled reference to the growing strategic coordination between China and Pakistan, terming it “near absolute collusivity.”

“What it means, as far as I am concerned, is that the two-front threat is a reality,” he warned.

Echoing the words of the late General Rawat, he cautioned against the dangers posed by India’s unsettled borders. “When you have unsettled borders to your north and west, you don’t know which side the battle will commence and where it will end. So, you should be prepared for both fronts. Today, the near absolute collusivity has further compounded the threat.”

A Shift in Global Power Dynamics

Speaking on the evolving world order, General Dwivedi highlighted how the recent conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have reshaped global alliances. “In 2025, the world is just cooling down from two major conflicts—Ukraine and Gaza—where the majority of nations took sides, some based on realism, some on idealism, and a selective few on religion,” he noted.

He also pointed out China’s growing challenge to the existing rules-based system, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative, which extends its influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe. “The US, reinforcing alliances like AUKUS and Quad, and promoting a free Indo-Pacific, Europe navigating a delicate path, striving to maintain its principle of human rights while engaging with China and the US concurrently, but they are not sure how to deal with Russia now,” he explained.

Meanwhile, Africa is rising, and the Global South is increasingly demanding a multipolar world that better reflects diverse interests.

A New Approach to Security and Deterrence

General Dwivedi stressed the importance of rethinking security in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. “Doing more and doing better is no longer enough. We need to do things differently, and that means thinking differently. Enhancing security today requires reimagining,” he said.

He noted that India’s traditional non-alignment policy has evolved into a strategy of “multi-alignment,” making its international posture more dynamic and assertive.

“Security is about wholesome capability to wage war and deter war. Healthy military-civil fusion, Aatm Nirbhar defence industrial base, dual-use assets at the national level, well-informed and empowered decision-makers of DIME framework, and an inclusive approach for citizen warriors play a pivotal role,” he elaborated.

He also pointed out the growing role of technology in deterrence. “Technology prowess has become the new currency of deterrence. Data has become the new capital of trade and security.”

Additionally, he expressed concerns over China’s increasing militarisation of space, warning that it escalates the risk of orbital debris and further heightens tensions.

Strengthening India’s Role in Global Governance

To bolster India’s international standing, General Dwivedi called for reforms in global governance structures such as the United Nations Security Council.

“Reform the UN Security Council to include Global South representatives. Play an active role in conflict resolution as a negotiator or a mediator. Harness the positive strength of the Indian diaspora the world over for humanitarian causes. Share a common platform for global commerce, enable the emergence of the Global South, be the leader in sharing additional resources with the have-nots for better socioeconomic development,” he urged.

He also reaffirmed India’s commitment to peacekeeping operations and counterterrorism, stating that the military remains aligned with national priorities.

“Lead peacekeeping operations, advocate nuclear weapons as a political asset only for deterrent purposes as long as possible, lead the Global War on Terrorism by virtue of facing it firsthand in J&K, the northeast, and against left-wing extremism,” he said.

General Dwivedi’s address painted a complex picture of India’s geopolitical challenges. While China’s rise and the growing China-Pakistan nexus present serious strategic concerns, he emphasised that India must focus on strengthening its diplomatic, technological, and military capabilities to secure its place in the emerging global order.

With India’s increasing assertion in global diplomacy and security, the road ahead will require a careful balance—leveraging alliances, reimagining deterrence, and championing the interests of the Global South.