PRIVATE CONSUMPTION REBOUND
Robust services drive India's business activity to 3-month high in Nov, cost pressures grow
India's business activity surged in November, hitting a three-month high thanks to a booming services sector and record job creation. Despite this positive trend, inflation has reached a near 12-year peak, driven by rising input costs across industries. While businesses remain optimistic, the soaring inflation may prompt the Reserve Bank of India to maintain its cautious stance on interest rates.
Market bottom not yet formed; betting on HDFC Bank to outperform: Nischal Maheshwari
Market expert Nischal Maheshwari believes HDFC Bank is poised to outperform after a period of underperformance. He notes the bank's strong recent performance and expects it to surpass ICICI Bank as a leader in the private banking sector. Maheshwari also shares his insights on various stocks and sectors, including Tata Motors, travel and tourism, and BPC companies.
India in a sweet spot: Moody's report highlights robust economic growth momentum amid inflation challenges
India's economy is experiencing robust growth, projected to hit 7.2% in 2024, driven by strong consumer spending and investment. Despite recent inflation spikes due to food prices, Moody's predicts moderation and highlights India's strong economic fundamentals and resilient financial position.
World Bank ups India's growth forecast for FY25 to 7% due to rising private consumption
The World Bank has raised India's economic growth forecast to 7% for the fiscal year ending in March 2025. This is up from April's 6.6% estimate. The growth is attributed to increased agricultural output and private consumption. The central bank maintained inflation forecasts and highlighted a resilient domestic growth outlook driven by private consumption and investment.
High valuations flash warning signs amid uncertain market outlook: Vijayaraghavan Swaminathan
?On top of it, if you look at the last three-four quarters, there is a weak job hiring when it comes to IT sector and weak salary growth. And adding to that, if you look at last three-four quarters, banks and NBFCs have been cautious when it comes to retail lending.
Growth to hold steady, but global risks Remain: FinMin
The finance ministry anticipates steady economic growth in the coming quarters, driven by increased public expenditure and a strengthening rural economy. Despite a current slowdown in urban auto and FMCG sales, the festive season may boost demand. The June quarter saw 6.7% growth, with strong private consumption and investment.
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2 near-term triggers for the market; earnings visibility highest in consumption-driven sectors: Sandeep Bhatia
Sandeep Bhatia of Macquarie Capital highlights the importance of state elections and US political stability for market triggers. He emphasizes earnings visibility in domestic consumption sectors and discusses trends in the auto industry, particularly luxury cars and SUVs. Bhatia also notes the potential impact of interest rate adjustments on NBFCs and private sector banks.
Focus to improve agriculture productivity will play into rural consumption story: R Mukundan, Tata Chemicals
?India can be the food basket for the world and I think that focus to improve agriculture productivity will play into rural consumption story which has been a bit of a worry for many companies and this effort by government to focus on agriculture and the eastern part of India especially in many ways, I think the agriculture productivity can be pushed up even more and the focus on east also from that perspective is extremely positive.
Budget 2024 | Govt & private sector need to collaborate for better EV infra: Deloitte's Rajeev Singh
The push in infrastructure not only creates employment but also kind of creates demand for commercial vehicles. The industry is looking for some more clarity across all new energy vehicles apart from EV and ICE as well.
Observing improved private consumption, IMF ups India's growth forecast to 7%
The International Monetary Fund has increased India's growth forecast to 7% due to rising rural consumption. Global economy is expected to grow at 3.2% this year, with China and India contributing significantly to global growth.
Industrial activity is expected to gain support from domestic consumption in FY25: CRISIL
Industrial activity is set to grow, supported by domestic consumption and improved private consumption, says CRISIL. May's Index of Industrial Production rose by 5.9% year-on-year. A normal monsoon and increased kharif sowing are expected to boost agriculture and control food inflation. GDP growth is projected to slow to 6.8% from 8.2%.
Fund Manager Talk | PSU stocks in 3 sectors offer value for long-term investors: Charanjit Singh, DSP Mutual Fund
We expect the Government to remain focussed on infra investment even during the third term. Since FY21, the government has focussed on building infrastructure with central government expenditure rising from 1.7% of GDP in FY21 to 3.3% of GDP in FY24.
NDA government 3.0 hopes fuel Street rebound
India's equity indices surged over 3% on Wednesday following a 6% plunge due to election results. Stocks rebounded on expectations of NDA forming the government. Market volatility is expected until government formation, with limited upsides currently.
Yields pare losses as services sector rebounds
The business activity index is "really driving that whole index higher," said Ellis Phifer, managing director of fixed income research at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.
BJP-led NDA's narrow majority shifts focus to rural spending and increased private investments
The recent election results in India saw the ruling BJP-led NDA secure a majority, though narrower than expected. A Bernstein report predicts increased focus on direct social schemes, especially in rural areas. Private sector investments are expected to drive the capex cycle, with implications for economic growth and market dynamics. Market volatility is anticipated due to policy uncertainty, while financials remain a key sector.
View: Whichever way you cut it, the economy¡¯s booming and is a welcome gift for the incoming government
The Indian economy is booming with a GDP growth of 8.2% for 2023-24, surpassing estimates. The National Statistics Office data highlights this growth despite challenges in sectors like manufacturing and agriculture.
Economy expands 7.8% in Q4, lifting FY24 growth to 8.2%
This is the highest annual growth since FY17, excluding the 9.7% post-Covid rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY22 after the 5.8% contraction in FY21. The advance estimate released in February had pegged FY24 growth at 7.6%. Economists and government expect the high growth to continue though tepid private consumption remains a concern.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Why are FIIs turning net sellers in Indian markets? Aditya Sood decodes
Aditya Sood, Fund Manager at InCred Asset Management, analyzes the impact of NDA's performance, FPIs' net selling, and the attractiveness of MSCI China index on Indian markets. He highlights the crucial role of these factors in shaping investment decisions. Sood says: "Over the next decade, India will be a buy on dip market ¡ª all corrections should be used as buying opportunities to increase allocation to equities as an asset class."
Household consumption to revive in FY25, growth at 6.3%: Standard Chartered
India needs household consumption to pick up for GDP growth of 6% or higher in the coming fiscal. Standard Chartered revised its FY25 forecast to 6.3% from 6%, projecting muted inflation and higher food spending to drive growth. The report expects a revival in consumption to offset the impact of lower commodity prices, slower global growth, and moderation in government capex.
Saas-bahu serial unfolding in Zee, Raymond; do SIP to take advantage of the perfect storm in private banks: Sanjiv Bhasin
SEBI's new disclosure norms have led to compulsory unloading of HDFC's heavily owned FII stock, causing fear and a perfect storm for private banks like HDFC, ICICI, and Axis. However, investors should consider buying Axis and HDFC Bank due to their potential for credit growth. Birlasoft, Tata Steel, and Tech Mahindra have shown positive earnings, while Balkrishna Industries is a standout in the tire market. The ongoing legal battle between Zee and Raymond is affecting sentiment, but the underlying businesses of both companies remain robust.
90% of the market overvalued except very largecap stocks: Sanjeev Prasad
Sanjeev Prasad says: ¡°Probably 90% of the market is overvalued. While the very largecap names seem to be more reasonably valued, as we go down the market cap quality and risk curve, the extent of overvaluation keeps on increasing and you cannot even understand what is happening in some of the midcap and smallcap stocks.¡±
Dollar set for strongest week since July on reduced rate cut bets
The dollar was steady on Friday, heading for its strongest weekly performance since July on scaled back expectations of steep and early interest rate cuts this year ahead of closely watched U.S. payrolls data later in the day
Charting the global economy: Expectations of global growth improves, but rebound remains fragile
The euro area and its biggest economies will avoid a recession as growth returns at the end of the year, helped by slowing inflation and a robust jobs market, according to new European Union forecasts.
This FMCG stock is set to rise 4%, and this private bank by 7%
Nifty stayed in a defined range without taking any directional bias. But it managed to close with a net gain.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Hosting of G20 event is indicative of the rising soft power of India: Ketaki Sharma
"Sustained high government capital spending usually crowds in private investment over time as in the case of many GCC countries such as the UAE. A huge domestic market and government capital spending have clearly helped buoy India's growth. Key risk to growth remains higher commodity prices eroding the purchasing power of the consumers. Inflation management will be crucial and RBI's monetary policy will be closely watched as well."
Inflation slowing down personal consumption, affecting pvt investment: RBI bulletin
Inflation in India is decreasing personal consumption expenditure, causing a slowdown in corporate sales and private investment, according to a paper authored by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra. The Reserve Bank published the report, which urged the lowering of inflation to revive consumer spending and boost corporate revenues. The article called for stabilising inflation expectations to incentivise private capex, cautioning that while India was experiencing an economic rebound, others were slowing or contracting. The country's real GDP growth in Q4 2022-23 and credit growth were among the strongest globally, the report found.
Private consumption, rural demand to drive India's growth in Apr-Jun quarter, highlights RBI bulletin
The article released on Monday also stated that the global economy is transfixed in the cross-currents of slowing growth and high inflation, and an uneasy calm prevails in the global financial markets as they await clearer signals from policy authorities on banking regulation and supervision, and contours of deposit insurance.
Private consumption continues to be supported by pent-up demand: Finance Ministry
The services sector is expected to rebound with YoY growth of 9.4 per cent in 2022-23 compared to8.8 per cent in 2021-22, driven by a recovery of the contact-intensive service sector: FinMin said in a report
Inflation at 6.8 pc not too high to deter private consumption, or weaken inducement to invest: Economic Survey
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projection of 6.8 per cent inflation for FY23 was outside the upper target limit of 6 per cent, according to the Economic Survey 2023. ??It said that the number is neither high enough to deter private consumption, nor too low to weaken inducement to invest.
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