INFLATION RISK
Hedge fund all-or-nothing trades gain traction
Investors are using over-the-counter binary contracts to manage risks related to events like elections, central bank decisions, and geopolitical conflicts. These contracts offer a pre-determined payoff with an all-or-nothing outcome. The market is seeing increased activity due to numerous global events this year, including US elections and the escalating war in Ukraine.
Competition from new entrants biggest risk for market leaders
Businesses are seeing increased competition from new entrants in various sectors. DMart, Asian Paints, and Pepsi face challenges from new competitors. Investors may suffer in the short term, but customers benefit from price wars. Healthcare competition may not reduce costs despite high medical inflation. Companies are trying new strategies to retain market share.
Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide stock market action on Tuesday
Indian stock markets closed higher on Monday, despite disappointing Q2 GDP data. Buying in cement and auto stocks supported the indices. While the market remains positive, analysts caution against a rate cut in the short term due to inflationary pressures. The RBI's upcoming policy meeting will be crucial for market direction.
Fed's Powell may have made US monetary policy boring again
For much of the past 17 years the Federal Reserve has been the central player in U.S. economic policy, throwing multi-trillion-dollar safety nets under the financial system, offering nearly a decade of ultra-cheap money, jumping redlines during the COVID-19 pandemic, and delving more into areas like equity and climate change.
Underweight stance on India leads to exits from FAR GSecs for a 2nd month
Foreign investors continue to sell Indian FAR securities for the second month, driven by higher US treasury yields and uncertainty following Donald Trump's re-election. RBI's stance against rate cuts amid high inflation further deters investors, with expectations of modest flows influenced by US monetary policy and fiscal decisions.
Trump¡¯s plans risk inflating bullish stock market into a bubble
Despite geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, market optimism remains strong, with small-cap stocks surging and the S&P 500 setting records. Caution is advised as speculative behavior grows.
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Wall St Week Ahead-Jobs data set to pave way for rates path, stocks
Investors will closely watch the upcoming U.S. employment report as it may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Strong job data could lessen expectations for rate cuts and raise inflation concerns. Stocks have gained this year, but robust economic indicators could impact future investor confidence. The Fed is cautious about how much easing the economy requires.
Wall Street stocks end lower after inflation data, tech stocks push Nasdaq down
US stock markets fell on Wednesday. Tech stocks led the decline. Consumer spending rose, but inflation remained stubborn. Traders expect a Fed rate cut in December, but not in early 2024. Trump's tariff threats added to market uncertainty. Dell and HP's weak forecasts impacted the tech sector. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw significant drops. The Dow Jones also fell.
5 world market themes for the week ahead
World markets prepare for an eventful week. Investors monitor the effects of a Trump administration and the Ukraine war. Focus on US holiday shopping and inflation's impact. Eurozone faces crucial inflation data and ECB decisions. Japan's central bank weighs interest rate hikes amid a weakening yen.
Fed survey finds inflation fading as a risk next to debt, trade wars
Financial experts were worried about the US economy. They feared rising debt, a possible recession, and threats to global trade. These concerns were reflected in the bond market, with rising yields on Treasury notes. The potential for a trade war and its impact on global trade flows and inflation added to the anxieties.
Recession coming? Trump's policies to cause big harm to the US economy, stock market could crash during his second term, says Anthony Scaramucci
A US stock market crash could become a huge reality in the coming days, based on Trump's economic policies which could be implemented in his tenure, after Joe Biden ends his term as US President. According to Anthony Scaramucci, Trump's policies have the potential of inflicting major harm on the US economy.
Bitcoin is at the doorstep of $100,000 as post-election rally rolls on
Bitcoin topped $98,000 for the first time Thursday, extending a streak of almost daily all-time highs since the U.S. presidential election. The cryptocurrency has rocketed more than 40% in just two weeks.
Fed governors stake out competing views of inflation risk
Federal Reserve Governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook expressed differing views on future monetary policy. While Bowman urged caution due to persistent inflation, Cook expressed confidence in continued easing of price pressures. Their perspectives highlight the factors influencing the Fed's decision on a potential interest rate cut at its December meeting.
Unchecked inflation risks hurting economy despite festive boost, RBI warns in latest report
India's economy, bolstered by festive spending and agricultural recovery, is rebounding from a second-quarter slowdown. However, rising inflation, reaching a 14-month high in October, threatens consumer demand and corporate investments.
Growth likely to have slowed in Q2 but no significant downside risk to FY25 projections: DEA
India's economic growth may have slowed down recently. However, the economy is still projected to grow between 6.5% to 7% this fiscal year. Data on e-way bills and e-invoices support this projection. Food prices have been a concern, but inflation is not a major challenge. Government capital expenditure may be slightly lower than initially projected.
Shankar Sharma flags CLSA India note as "trap" amid market optimism
Market expert Shankar Sharma issued a cautionary note to Indian investors, criticizing a recent report from global brokerage firm CLSA that shifted its investment focus from China to India. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Sharma labeled the report as a "trojan horse" and a "typical trap" for retail and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), warning against excessive optimism in the current market environment.
US stocks sink on Powell rate-cut caution, Trump cabinet picks
Wall Street's major indexes experienced their most significant single-day decline in two weeks, driven by concerns over a potential slowdown in interest rate cuts and reactions to President-elect Donald Trump's cabinet appointments.
Asian stocks fall ahead of key US inflation data
Stock benchmarks in Tokyo and Sydney retreated after the S&P 500 slipped following its biggest five-day advance in a year. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended its post-election rally, while the yen closed in on the closely watched level of 155.
SBI Chairman CS Setty predicts when RBI will cut rates next. It's not in December
SBI chairman anticipates RBI will cut interest rates in February 2025. Depositors can expect current interest rates to remain until then. SBI plans to expand its deposit base by focusing on service quality and personalized offerings for high-value customers. The bank's lending rates are expected to remain stable due to its marginal cost of lending rate strategy.
One of world's biggest bond fund managers sounds alarm for US economy, stock market under President Trump
US economy under Donald Trump: Bond giant Pimco's chief investment officer Dan Ivascyn has sounded an alarm about US economy and surging stock markets under President-elect Donald Trump's administration. He said Trump's economic policies were coming at a time when you already have a lot of positive growth momentum. Dan Ivascyn's remarks come at a time when investing guru Jim Rogers has also issued a warning about Trump's America's First policy.
Central banks revisit their rate-cut plans
Global central bankers are bracing for potential economic upheaval as Donald Trump's return to the US presidency threatens to ignite trade wars, exacerbate budget deficits, and disrupt labor markets. These policies could stifle global growth, fuel US inflation, and limit the ability of central banks worldwide to ease monetary policy.
Strong demand revives India services PMI in October
India's service industry saw renewed growth in October, driven by strong demand and job creation, according to a recent business survey. This positive trend suggests a strong start for the economy in the final quarter of the fiscal year, supporting predictions of 7% growth. The surge in demand also led to increased hiring and price hikes, potentially impacting inflation.
Bank of Japan keeps rates steady, puts focus on global risks
The Bank of Japan maintains ultra-low interest rates, signaling caution amid global economic uncertainties, while projecting inflation near its 2% target in coming years. The decision reflects a focus on risks to Japan's fragile recovery, with potential rate hikes depending on economic conditions and political stability.
RBI chief Shaktikanta Das says inflation moderating, but upside risks require vigilance
India's inflation is moderating, but the Reserve Bank of India remains vigilant to risks from unexpected events. Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that the central bank aims to align inflation to 4% and keep it close to the target. The financial sector is resilient, but constant vigilance is necessary due to the changing environment.
India cannot risk another bout of inflation: RBI Governor Das
India's central bank, led by Governor Shaktikanta Das, opts for a flexible approach to monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of India maintains the benchmark interest rate at 6.5%, shifts its stance to 'neutral,' and prioritizes price stability amid inflation concerns and global uncertainties.
RBI MPC: Hold your horses!!!
The RBI indicated a shift to a neutral policy stance despite expectations of rate cuts. It emphasized domestic growth and inflation risks, citing weak real incomes and financial stability concerns in the BFSI sector. A potential rate cut needs slower retail lending and improved household savings.
RBI holds inflation forecast at 4.5% ¨C Stability or risk ahead?
RBI Inflation 2024: The Reserve Bank of India has maintained its inflation forecast at 4.5% for this fiscal year, despite concerns over rising food and oil prices. The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% stems from recent favorable domestic conditions and bountiful rains, aiming to sustainably align inflation with targets.
Jobs-day shocker vindicates great risk rally of 2024
The US economy's surprising resilience challenges recession fears, as a report showed the biggest job gains in six months. This sparked market reversals and rethought interest rate bets. Small-cap companies and tech stocks led gains. Continued strong US activity data and expected rate cuts suggest a positive outlook for risk assets, despite inflation concerns.
Ed Yardeni sees Fed pausing rate cuts for 2024 after jobs report
The Federal Reserve's rate-cut campaign for 2024 may have ended due to a strong labor report, signaling economic resilience. Wall Street experts, including Ed Yardeni and Larry Summers, criticize further easing, fearing inflation risks. Investors and economists debate the central bank's future policy moves.
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