ICRA ECONOMIC FORECAST
The game needs to change for world¡¯s fifth-largest economy after poor Q2 show
India's economy experienced its slowest growth in nearly two years during the July-to-September quarter, with GDP growing at just 5.4%. Declining wages, falling company profits, high inflation, and stagnant interest rates all contributed to the slowdown, challenging Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic targets.
RBI may continue status quo on interest rate, moderate GDP growth forecast: Experts
The RBI is expected to maintain the current benchmark interest rate due to high inflation exceeding the set limit. This decision will be announced on December 6, 2024. Experts believe rate cuts may only be possible in February if inflation decreases. Growth forecasts may also be revised due to disappointing GDP figures.
GDP boom loses steam in Q2, growth at 7-quarter low
India's economic growth fell to a seven-quarter low of 5.4% for the September quarter, driven by weak manufacturing and decreased consumer demand. Economists project a possible rate cut by the RBI to boost growth. The full-year GDP forecast is now estimated closer to 6.5%.
Q2 growth shocker puts pressure on RBI to cut rates
India's economy grew at 5.4% in the three months to September, the slowest pace in almost two years. This lag affects Prime Minister Modi's growth plans and may prompt the Reserve Bank to consider cutting interest rates. Economists expect stronger growth in the second half with government spending and rising rural consumption.
India's Q2 economic growth likely took a hit from heavy rains and corporate struggles: ICRA
India's economic growth is expected to moderate to 6.5% in the second quarter. This is due to heavy monsoon rains and weaker corporate margins. However, government capital expenditure and kharif sowing have shown positive growth. The industrial sector is likely to see the biggest slowdown. Services and agriculture sectors are expected to remain resilient.
Retail inflation at 6.2 per cent dims early rate cut hopes
India's retail inflation unexpectedly jumped to a 14-month high of 6.2% in October, driven by soaring vegetable, fruit, and edible oil prices. This surge breaches the central bank's target range and delays the possibility of interest rate cuts. Economists predict inflation will remain elevated for a few months before gradually easing towards the Reserve Bank of India's target rate.
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Industrial output expands 3.1% in September on base effect, festivals
Excluding August performance, the September output growth was at a nine-month low. It had increased by 6.4% in September 2023. For the quarter ended September, IIP growth was at a seven-quarter low of 2.6% due to high base effect and weather vagaries. The growth was 4% in the first half of the current financial year, down from 6.2% in the corresponding period last year.
Growth may have slipped in rainy Q2 but forecast for fiscal is sunny
India's economic growth slowed to 6.8% in July-September due to reduced consumption and investment amid heavy monsoon rains. Factors like lower diesel and electricity usage, slower vehicle sales, a global slowdown, and geopolitical tensions affected growth. Economists expect overall annual growth to remain robust at around 7%.
ICRA forecasts decline in India¡¯s cut & polished diamond exports to decade-low levels
ICRA forecasts India's cut and polished diamond exports to hit a decade-low of $12.5-13 billion in FY2025, marking an 18-19% year-on-year decline. The downturn is driven by weak global demand, increased competition from lab-grown diamonds, and high inventory levels. The sector outlook remains negative.
Poll dampener: India's GDP growth slows to 15-month low of 6.7% in June quarter
India's growth rate dropped to a five-quarter low of 6.7% in the April-June period. This slowdown was influenced by a decrease in agriculture and trade-related services output, and general elections impacting government spending.
Q1 growth seen in slow motion on manufacturing slump, lower government spending amid polls
India's growth in Q1 FY25 slowed to a median 6.85%, impacted by lower urban consumption, weakened manufacturing, and reduced government spending during elections. Economists anticipate recovery in subsequent quarters despite an uneven monsoon and tepid commodity gains. The government will release detailed growth data by August 30.
ICRA forecasts India's Q1 GDP growth to fall to 6%, a six-quarter low
The insights by ICRA indicate a temporary slowdown in India's economic growth, with several sectors witnessing a downturn influenced by government actions, urban consumer sentiment, and weather conditions, but project a recovery in the latter half of the fiscal year.
No freedom from the core price problem keeps celebrations muted
Inflation in India: India, despite being the fastest-growing major economy, continues to grapple with inflation, impacting commoners and stakeholders alike. The recent drop in headline inflation below the central bank's target was due to a base effect. However, core inflation persists, challenging both the Reserve Bank of India and the government to manage price pressures effectively.
Monetary Policy: RBI likely to keep interest rate unchanged at 6.5%, say experts
The RBI was predicted to keep the key interest rate steady at 6.5% at its August meeting, influenced by persistent inflation and economic growth. Experts noted any rate cuts might be seen in late 2024, subject to further economic data. This decision aligns with the similar stance of the US Federal Reserve.
Economic Survey 2024: Jobs key to unlocking demographic dividend
Experts analyze the Economic Survey's GDP growth projections for fiscal 2025, emphasizing job creation, MSME growth, and energy transition challenges. Suggestions include sustained infrastructure support and inflation targeting excluding food.
Conservative growth estimate due to global uncertainties, experts on Economic Survey
India's Economic Survey has projected a conservative growth of 6.5-7 per cent for the current fiscal year due to global uncertainties and domestic challenges. This is lower than the 8.2% growth rate estimated in 2023-24 and a bit lower than the Reserve Bank's forecast of 7.2% for the current financial year. The survey has proposed a compact between central and state governments, corporate sector, and academia to overcome the unprecedented economic scenario.
RBI MPC Meeting: Das & Co may look at food bills to keep its stance, rate unchanged
RBI Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain the repo rate at 6.5% with a focus on withdrawing accommodation, marking the eighth consecutive time it remains unchanged. Economists predict the unchanged stance, citing persistent inflation in food prices and global commodity price risks. RBI Governor's decision is crucial post-elections.
'Acche din' to continue for FD investors as high fixed deposit interest rates will not drop soon: All eyes on RBI MPC on June 7
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will likely keep the repo rate unchanged in the upcoming monetary policy committee review. The question now is how long will the high-FD rate regime continue. Also, what should be the best strategy for your short-term and long-term fixed deposits? ET Wealth Online spoke to experts and here's all you need to know.
RBI unlikely to cut interest rate on June 7, say experts
The Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its upcoming monetary policy review amid inflation challenges and improving economic growth. Scheduled for June 5-7, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the current 6.5% repo rate. Experts cite steady economic conditions and ongoing inflation concerns as reasons for maintaining the status quo
Economy expands 7.8% in Q4, lifting FY24 growth to 8.2%
This is the highest annual growth since FY17, excluding the 9.7% post-Covid rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY22 after the 5.8% contraction in FY21. The advance estimate released in February had pegged FY24 growth at 7.6%. Economists and government expect the high growth to continue though tepid private consumption remains a concern.
Economists project continued economic momentum and stability after India reports robust GDP growth in Q4
India's economy experienced a 7.8% growth rate in the January-March quarter, surpassing expectations due to strong performance in the manufacturing sector. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter of FY24 was slightly lower than the revised 8.6% growth in the previous quarter. Economists are optimistic about sustained momentum throughout the year, with the gap between GDP and gross value added (GVA) expected to normalize from the second quarter of FY25.
India's growth outlook: Economy to get a blockbuster release this Friday? But that's too late to stream in poll campaigns
GDP Q4: As the country buzzes with election excitement, India is set to release its GDP growth numbers for the fourth quarter of FY24 this Friday, alongside the full fiscal year figures. Analysts are eagerly awaiting to see if the January to March quarter numbers surpass expectations, fueling hopes of a surprising uptick in growth.
GDP likely expanded 6.8% in Q4; FY24 print may hit 7.8%
The strong March quarter print could lift overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the full fiscal year to 7.8% against 7.6% assessed in the government's first advance estimates released in February. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also forecast 7.8% growth for FY24. The government will release fourth-quarter growth numbers and provisional GDP data for FY24 on May 31.
RBI's decision shows resolve to ensure price stability, say experts
As the central bank held key policy rates steady, the EMIs on home and auto loans are likely to remain stable for some more time. The RBI has kept interest rates unchanged since February 2023.
Advance tax mopup rises 20% YoY in April-December
The Centre has budgeted ?18.20 lakh crore from direct taxes in FY24, a 9.6% rise from the latest estimate available for FY23. The budget estimate (BE) for direct tax revenue in the last fiscal (FY23) was ?14.2 lakh crore. It was later revised to ?16.5 lakh crore and ended marginally higher at ?16.61 lakh crore.
?GDP surprises at 7.6% for Q2, experts expect higher FY24 growth
?¡°Given the higher than forecast outcome for Q2, we are revising our FY2024 growth forecast to 6.2% from 6.0%,¡± said Aditi Nayar, chief economist, Icra. The growth in the second quarter is just a shade below the 7.8% growth registered in the first quarter and way higher than the 6.2% growth witnessed in Q2FY23. The economy grew 7.7% in the first half of the year.
India's Q2 GDP Growth: Slowing speedometer in global race can¡¯t deter the fastest growing economy
As India eagerly anticipates the release of its fiscal second-quarter growth numbers, two contrasting headlines emerge. On one hand, there's optimism as the gross domestic product (GDP) growth reading is poised to surpass initial forecasts. On the other hand, a more tempered perspective arises, indicating a moderation from the first quarter's remarkable four-quarter high.
Monsoon 2023 could be below normal: IMD
With August being the driest in 122 years, Monsoon 2023 could end up with the country getting "below normal" or "lower side of normal rains". This could damage chief kharif crops like rice, pulses and oilseeds. This could lead to increase in prices of these commodities. IMD considers rainfall in the range of 90-95% of LPA as ¡°below normal¡± category
India economic growth likely picked up pace in April-June, according Reuters poll
India's economic growth is expected to have accelerated to 7.7% in the April-June quarter, driven by strong demand, robust service sector growth, and increased government capital expenditure. This is the fastest annual pace in a year, according to a Reuters poll. However, growth is forecasted to moderate in the coming quarters, with economists stating that higher growth is needed to address the unemployment problem.
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