ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Robust services drive India's business activity to 3-month high in Nov, cost pressures grow
India's business activity surged in November, hitting a three-month high thanks to a booming services sector and record job creation. Despite this positive trend, inflation has reached a near 12-year peak, driven by rising input costs across industries. While businesses remain optimistic, the soaring inflation may prompt the Reserve Bank of India to maintain its cautious stance on interest rates.
Growth likely to have slowed in Q2 but no significant downside risk to FY25 projections: DEA
India's economic growth may have slowed down recently. However, the economy is still projected to grow between 6.5% to 7% this fiscal year. Data on e-way bills and e-invoices support this projection. Food prices have been a concern, but inflation is not a major challenge. Government capital expenditure may be slightly lower than initially projected.
Economy likely to grow 6.7% in FY25 due to weaker Q2 performance: Report
India's economic growth is projected to reach 6.7% in 2024-25. This follows a weaker second quarter with slower growth indicators. A rebound is expected in the latter half of the fiscal year, driven by agriculture and government spending. Domestic demand will continue to fuel growth, reaching 6.5% in 2025-26 and 2026-27.
Morgan Stanley lowers India's growth aim for FY25; economy may expect a better Q3 show with wedding season
Morgan Stanley has revised India's FY25 growth forecast to 6.7%, down from 7%, citing weaker-than-expected second-quarter data. Despite the downgrade, the firm anticipates a rebound in the second half, fueled by government spending and improved agricultural output. Inflation is expected to moderate, prompting potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India in April.
Capex companies will face a longer winter than consumer companies: Ajay Srivastava
Ajay Srivastava, CEO of Dimensions Corporate, believes that while the Indian market has faced difficulties, a reversal is underway. He sees positive signs in retail sales, particularly in sectors like two-wheelers, appliances, hotels, and aviation. However, he cautions that capex companies may experience a slower recovery due to limited government spending.
F&O Talk| Technical indicators suggest strong bearish momentum. 23,200 level likely to provide cushion: Sudeep Shah
The Indian market has seen a significant correction, with the Nifty falling below its 200-day EMA. FII outflows and disappointing Q2 earnings have contributed to this decline. The 23,250-23,200 zone is a potential support level, while 23,900-24,000 is a key resistance. The market's short-term outlook remains bearish.
US industrial production slump stretched in October
US industrial production experienced a 0.3 percent decline in October, following a revised 0.5 percent drop in September, as reported by the Federal Reserve on Friday. The decrease was attributed to a strike at Boeing and the impact of Hurricanes Milton and Helene. This downward trend contributed to a 0.3 percent decrease in industrial production over the past year.
India in a sweet spot: Moody's report highlights robust economic growth momentum amid inflation challenges
India's economy is experiencing robust growth, projected to hit 7.2% in 2024, driven by strong consumer spending and investment. Despite recent inflation spikes due to food prices, Moody's predicts moderation and highlights India's strong economic fundamentals and resilient financial position.
Wholesale inflation quickens to 2.36% in October over rising food prices
India's wholesale price index rose to 2.36 percent in October. Food prices increased, pushing retail inflation to a 14-month high. The Reserve Bank of India held its benchmark interest rate steady. The central bank maintained its inflation forecast for the fiscal year at 4.5 percent. Food price volatility remains a concern for inflation and economic stability.
Indian economy 'sailing smoothly' amid global challenges, says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das expressed confidence in India's economic stability amidst global uncertainties. He highlighted the country's strong external sector, robust buffers, and the RBI's proactive measures in navigating challenges like inflation and geopolitical tensions. Das emphasized the central bank's commitment to balancing growth and stability while addressing emerging risks.
Go splurge! India may lift spending limits to hit record capex goals
To avoid missing its capital expenditure target for the fiscal year 2024/2025, India is considering easing quarterly spending restrictions. The move comes after slower spending in the first half of the year contributed to a slowdown in economic indicators. Despite the potential increase in spending, the government is unlikely to adjust its borrowing plans for the year.
GDP likely to grow 6.2 pc in Q2: Barclays
India's economic growth is projected to slow to 6.2% in the second quarter of 2024-25, due to a high base effect and heavy rainfall, as per Barclays' estimates. While government spending and rural consumption are picking up, urban demand and private investment remain weak. Barclays has revised its GDP forecast for 2024-25 to 6.8% from 7% earlier, expecting a recovery in the second half of the year.
States endorse MoSPI plan for district surveys
India is gearing up to collect economic data at the district level, aiming to release gross district development figures by January 2026. This initiative, endorsed by all states, will encompass data on household consumption, employment, inflation, and more. The move aims to bolster the state statistical system and provide valuable insights for both government and private sector decision-making.
Q2 GDP expansion to be muted, FY25 growth projected at 7%: SBI
The State Bank of India predicts India's economic growth will slow to 6.5% in the second quarter of this fiscal year, but rebound to 7.2-7.3% in the third quarter. This projection, based on various consumption indicators, anticipates rural demand as a key driver of recovery, with overall GDP growth for 2024-25 estimated between 6.9-7%.
RBI's Shaktikanta Das said economic activity remains strong, warns October inflation print could be above 5.5%
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that India's economy remains robust but warned of escalating inflation, potentially surpassing September's 5.5%. He indicated that high inflation might deter interest rate cuts in the upcoming December policy review. Das also highlighted the resilience of India's financial sector and its ability to withstand global economic fluctuations.
India's Q2 GDP growth may slow down to 6.5%; FY25 growth seen closer to 7%: SBI
SBI economists predict a dip in India's GDP growth to 6.5% for the September quarter, citing temporary pressures on the domestic economy. Despite this, they maintain an optimistic outlook, expecting a rebound in the following quarter fueled by rising rural demand and anticipate FY25 growth to approach 7%.
India Inc's Q2 show is scary? Shaktikanta Das says he won't 'rush' to say economy is slowing
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das affirmed India's economic activity remains robust, particularly in agriculture and services. Despite mixed data and concerns over slowing urban consumption, Das highlighted positive indicators like the rebound in manufacturing and services PMIs, supporting the RBI's 7.2% growth forecast for the fiscal year.
Growth may have slipped in rainy Q2 but forecast for fiscal is sunny
India's economic growth slowed to 6.8% in July-September due to reduced consumption and investment amid heavy monsoon rains. Factors like lower diesel and electricity usage, slower vehicle sales, a global slowdown, and geopolitical tensions affected growth. Economists expect overall annual growth to remain robust at around 7%.
India may face 24.7% GDP loss by 2070 thanks to climate change: ADB report
Climate change may cause substantial GDP losses in Asia and the Pacific by 2070. India is likely to experience a 24.7 per cent GDP reduction. Rising sea levels and decreasing labour productivity are significant factors. Up to 300 million people in the region could be at risk, and trillions of coastal assets face annual damage.
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