IMF GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK
Cranking it up: Factory activity hits a 10-month high in April
India's manufacturing sector experienced significant growth in April. The HSBC Purchasing Managers Index reached 58.8. Output and sales saw a boost. International orders hit a 14-year high. The US tariff announcement had a limited impact. Cost pressures intensified, leading to higher output prices. Manufacturers expanded their workforce to meet the rising demand.
India to ask IMF & other global multilateral agencies to review loans, grants to Pakistan: Source
India has requested the International Monetary Fund to review loans given to Pakistan. This comes amid rising tensions after an attack in Kashmir. India accuses Pakistan of involvement, which Pakistan denies. The IMF program is crucial for Pakistan's economy. Despite tensions, Pakistan asserts its economic program is on track.
India to ask IMF & other global multilateral agencies to review loans, grants to Pakistan
Following a terror attack in Pahalgam, India plans to urge global multilateral agencies, including the IMF and ADB, to reassess financial aid to Pakistan. The IMF is scheduled to meet on May 9 to review Pakistan's funding facility and climate resilience loan program.
India's to grow at 6.6% in FY26 as tax relief supports demand amid trade uncertainty: Deloitte
Deloitte forecasts India's economic growth to remain steady at 6.6% in FY2025-26, balancing domestic tax stimulus against uncertain global trade. Tax incentives are expected to boost consumer spending, while potential tariffs on exports to the US pose a risk. The outcome of US-India trade negotiations will significantly influence India's economic trajectory.
Tariffs, oil prices and other uncertainties weighing down Mideast economies, IMF says
The International Monetary Fund warned that Middle East and North Africa face economic challenges due to lower oil prices, tariff measures, and reduced foreign aid, forecasting 2.6% growth this year, while urging countries to devise policies to protect their economies and drive growth through structural reforms.
Cheaper energy may ease global inflation: World Bank's deputy chief economist Ayhan Kose
The World Bank anticipates stronger global growth if trade tensions reduce. Commodity prices may initially drop but could rise higher than expected. Lower oil prices may offset growth headwinds for importers like India. Gold prices are projected to surge significantly in 2025, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank purchases. This marks a decade of annual increases.
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MoF flags global uncertainty as risk to India's FY26 growth
The finance ministry has cautioned that global uncertainties pose a risk to India's FY26 growth, potentially delaying private sector investment. The ministry emphasised the need for proactive measures to foster a cycle of investment and growth.
India may oppose $1.3 billion IMF loan to Pakistan
India is considering opposing a $1.3 billion IMF loan to Pakistan, citing concerns about misuse of funds and support for terrorism. The IMF board is scheduled to discuss the loan and review Pakistan's existing $7 billion bailout package. India had previously abstained from voting on the bailout but may now vote against it, highlighting cross-border terrorism concerns.
IMF to review Pakistan's $1.3 bn package on May 9
The IMF Executive Board is scheduled to meet on May 9 to discuss Pakistan's USD 1.3 billion climate resilience loan and the first review of its USD 7 billion bailout package. Approval would unlock a USD 1 billion tranche, crucial for stabilizing Pakistan's economy.
India's growth outlook at risk from trade tensions and geopolitical risks: Finance Ministry
India's economic growth faces headwinds from trade tensions and geopolitical risks in fiscal year 2025/26, potentially disrupting supply chains and inflating prices, according to a finance ministry report. The IMF has also lowered India's growth forecast to 6.2%, citing increased global uncertainty. The government urges swift action to mitigate risks and boost private investment through debt reduction.
View: US exit from IMF would be true dollar shock
The U.S. dollar faces a tough start in 2025. Trump administration's policies are causing unease. A potential U.S. exit from the International Monetary Fund could weaken the dollar. This move may unravel overseas dollar reserves. Experts warn of significant consequences for the dollar's global role. The future of America's financial status is uncertain.
Charting the global economy: US dollar slide evocative of Nixon
Donald Trump's trade policies, aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, are impacting the global economy. The US dollar is experiencing its weakest performance since Nixon's era, while forecasts predict a slowdown in US economic growth due to trade tensions.
IMF reaches staff-level agreement on fourth review under extended fund facility with Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka has reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF for a fourth review of its Extended Fund Facility bailout, potentially unlocking $344 million in financing upon IMF Executive Board approval. Despite strong recovery since securing the program in 2023, global trade policy uncertainty, particularly U.S. tariffs, poses downside risks.
India's economic growth outlook unchanged, poised to outperform global growth despite risks: Lakshmi Iyer
Lakshmi Iyer of Kotak Investment Advisors discusses India's inward-focused economic strategy, fueled by rising rural and urban consumption and supported by the BFSI sector. Despite global growth concerns and fluctuating dollar dynamics, India's bond market remains attractive due to domestic institutional support and potential US rate cuts, with impending global index inclusions further bolstering bond yields.
IMF chief urges countries to move 'swiftly' to resolve trade tensions that threaten global growth
The IMF urges swift resolution of trade disputes, citing the threat to global economic growth from Trump's tariffs. Uncertainty caused by these policies is delaying investments and consumer spending, leading to a downgraded global outlook. The IMF also warns that poorer countries will be disproportionately affected by the economic fallout from trade conflicts, as the chances of recession increases.
US stock market today: Nasdaq soars 1.9%, S&P 500 gains 1.4% as big tech rallies; Dow lags on IBM drop – Texas Instruments, ServiceNow lead earnings winners, P&G, Chipotle slide
US stock market today surged as the Nasdaq jumped 1.9% and the S&P 500 added 1.4%, powered by a major tech rally. Big names like Texas Instruments and ServiceNow soared after strong earnings, lifting the overall market mood. But not all stocks joined the party—IBM dragged the Dow with a 0.1% dip, and Procter & Gamble along with Chipotle slipped. Investors are closely watching these mixed signals, especially with AI-related and chip stocks in focus.
IMF warns of 'intensified' risks to public finances amid US trade war
Donald Trump's tariff plans have increased the risks to public finances, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday, warning countries to get their spending plans under control and prepare for "sharper" trade-offs. "Fiscal policy now faces a sharper trade-off between reducing debt, building buffers against uncertainties and accommodating spending pressures, all amidst weaker growth prospects, higher financing costs, and heightened risks," it added.
US tariffs likely to hit India's growth directly by as much as 0.5% points, says FinMin Secy
India is actively pursuing a trade agreement with the United States, even as the potential impact of US tariffs on India's GDP growth is estimated to be between 0.2% and 0.5%. Finance Secretary Seth anticipates the Indian economy to expand by approximately 6.5% this fiscal year. The Reserve Bank of India has also projected a 6.5% growth.
Impact of trade wars on growth-inflation dynamics weighed on MPC vote
The RBI lowered the repo rate to 6% for the second consecutive time, shifting to an accommodative stance to boost private consumption and investment amid global trade uncertainties. While members unanimously voted for the cut, concerns remain about the trade war's impact on growth.
India's growth prospects to be impacted adversely over risk of prolonged recession due to trade wars, warns RBI
Reserve Bank of India's Nagesh Kumar raised concerns about trade wars. He said global recession poses a serious risk. This situation could adversely affect India's economic growth. The World Trade Organization has issued warnings about declining world trade. Global GDP growth forecasts may face downward revisions. These revisions are due to reciprocal tariffs and ongoing trade disputes.
India's growth aim cuts do not throw it out of 'fastest growing economy' race
Despite downward revisions from global financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank, India is expected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy. Projections for India’s GDP growth in 2025-26 range between 6.2 per cent and 6.7 per cent. These revisions reflect a broader global economic slowdown, sluggish recovery in China, and U.S. trade policy changes.
World Bank cuts India’s FY26 growth aim; IMF sees world leaning on New Delhi
India Growth Forecast: The World Bank has revised India's economic growth forecast for FY26 to 6.3%, citing global economic weakness and policy uncertainty. This adjustment follows a similar move by the IMF, which also lowered India's GDP forecast. South Asia's overall growth prospects have weakened, with projections downgraded for most countries in the region due to rising global uncertainty and domestic weaknesses.
Global tariff uncertainty may impact growth, but India set to weather the storm: Garima Kapoor
Elara Capital's Garima Kapoor believes India's 6.2% growth forecast by the IMF is realistic, though RBI and the Ministry of Finance may need to revise their estimates downwards. Trade uncertainties persist, but pro-growth policies and favorable cyclical tailwinds support the Indian economy.
IMF warns of larger losses for US, China in 2026 and beyond due to trade war
Trump Tariff Growth Hit: The International Monetary Fund has reduced its global growth prediction. This is due to US-China trade tensions. The IMF expects 2.8 percent growth in 2025. A 3.0 percent growth is expected in 2026. These figures are lower than previous forecasts. Escalating tariffs are impacting the global economy. The IMF warns of further economic damage.
India to slow but lead world: IMF
The IMF has lowered India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.2% due to trade tensions and US tariffs, while still projecting India as the fastest-growing economy. Global growth for 2025 is also reduced to 2.8%. Despite this, India's 2025 outlook remains stable, supported by private consumption. Inflation is expected to decrease to 4.2% in FY26 and 4.1% in FY27.
IMF says slashes China growth forecast for this year to 4%
The IMF has revised China's 2025 economic growth forecast to four percent, significantly below Beijing's five percent target, due to an escalating trade war with the US. This downgrade reflects concerns about the property sector crisis, local government debt, and weak consumer spending.
IMF cuts India’s growth forecast to 6.2% in FY26 amid tariff uncertainty
The IMF has revised India's FY26 GDP growth forecast downwards to 6.2% due to trade tensions and US tariffs, with a further reduction to 6.3% projected for FY27. Despite these adjustments, India's growth is expected to lead emerging and advanced economies. Global growth projections have also been lowered, with tariffs impacting inflation and economic performance worldwide.
IMF slashes global growth outlook on impact of US tariffs
The International Monetary Fund has significantly lowered its global growth forecast for this year to 2.8%, attributing the downturn to the impact of US President Trump's tariff policies. This revision reflects concerns over trade tensions and their potential to disrupt global trade, particularly affecting major economies like China, Mexico, and Canada.
Tariff deal talks to dominate IMF-World Bank meetings this week
Global finance leaders converge in Washington, prioritizing trade deals amidst Trump's tariffs. The IMF and World Bank meetings are overshadowed by concerns over economic forecasts and potential dollar instability. Treasury Secretary Bessent's role is crucial, addressing questions about U.S. support for multilateral development banks and navigating tariff negotiations with nations like Japan and South Korea.
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