ICICI Securities maintains Hold on Infosys; lowers target price to Rs 1,470

Synopsis
ICICI Securities maintains a Hold call on Infosys, revising the target price to Rs 1,470 due to weak guidance and global uncertainties. Infosys reported a slight dip in consolidated total income for the quarter ended March 2025. The brokerage cut EPS estimates for FY26/27, citing a pause in discretionary spending recovery impacting Infosys more than its peers.
Financials
The company's top management includes Mr.Nandan M Nilekani, Ms.Helene Auriol Potier, Mr.Bobby Parikh, Ms.Chitra Nayak, Mr.Govind Iyer, Mr.Michael Gibbs, Mr.D Sundaram, Mr.Salil Parekh, Mr.Nandan M Nilekani, Mr.Nitin Paranjpe, Ms.Helene Auriol Potier, Mr.Bobby Parikh, Ms.Chitra Nayak, Mr.Govind Iyer, Mr.Michael Gibbs, Mr.D Sundaram, Mr.Salil Parekh, Mr.Nitin Paranjpe. Company has Deloitte Haskins & Sells LLP as its auditors. As on 31-03-2025, the company has a total of 415 crore shares outstanding.
Investment Rationale
Infosys' weak guidance with a widened range of 0-3% YoY CC for FY26 is due to 1) weak exit growth rate of -1.1% YoY CC, 2) heightened uncertainty due to global tariff wars and 3) lack of mega deals reflected in muted TCV of $11.6 billlion, down 34% YoY in FY25. While TCS and Wipro acknowledged deferrals of projects in latter half of Q4FY25, Infosys did not call out project ramp downs. However, management mentioned that client decision making has slowed down, likely impacting pipeline to TCV conversion. Total bookings at USD 11bn with 56.5% net new were down 34% YoY in FY25 due to mega deals in base year. ICICI Securities cut EPS by 5%/7% for FY26/27E due to a cut in revenue estimates. They continue to value Infosys at 21x on Q4FY26-Q3FY27 EPS of Rs 70 to arrive at a revised target price of Rs 1,470. They brokerage maintains HOLD. Pause in recovery of discretionary spends is likely to have higher impact on Infosys vs peers.
Promoter/FII Holdings
Promoters held 14.6 per cent stake in the company as of 31-Mar-2025, while FIIs owned 32.89 per cent, DIIs 38.26 per cent.
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